Identifying important individual- and country-level predictors of conspiracy theorizing: a machine learning analysis

• Main Authors: Douglas, Karen M, Sutton, Robbie M, Van Lissa, Caspar J, Stroebe, Wolfgang, Kreienkamp, Jannis, Agostini, Maximilian, Belanger, Jocelyn J, Gutzkow, Ben, Abakoumkin, Georgios, Abdul Khaiyom, Jamilah Hanum, Ahmedi, Vjollca, Akkas, Handan, Almenara, Carlos A, Atta, Mohsin, Bagci, Sabahat Cigdem, Basel, Sima, Kida, Edona Berisha, Bernardo, Allan B. I., Buttrick, Nicholas R, Chobthamkit, Phatthanakit, Choi, Hoon-Seok, Cristea, Mioara, Csaba, Sara, Damnjanović, Kaja, Danyliuk, Ivan, Dash, Arobindu, Di Santo, Daniela, Enea, Violeta, Faller, Daiane, Fitzsimons, Gavan J, Gheorghiu, Alexandra, Gómez, Ángel, Hamaidia, Ali, Han, Qing, Helmy, Mai, Hudiyana, Joevarian, Jeronimus, Bertus F, Jiang, Ding-Yu, Jovanović, Veljko, Kamenov, Zeljka, Kende, Anna, Keng, Shian-Ling, Tra, Thi Thanh Kieu, Koc, Yasin, Kovyazina, Kamila, Kozytska, Inna, Krause, Joshua, Kruglanski, Arie W, Kurapov, Anton, Kutlaca, Maja, Lantos, Nóra Anna, Lemay Jr., Edward P, Lesmana, Cokorda Bagus J, Louis, Winnifred R, Lueders, Adrian, Iqbal Malik, Najma, Martinez, Anton P, McCabe, Kira O, Mehulić, Jasmina, Milla, Mirra Noor, Mohammed, Idris, Molinario, Erica, Moyano, Manuel, Muhammad, Hayat, Mula, Silvana, Muluk, Hamdi, Myroniuk, Solomiia, Najafi, Reza, Nisa, Claudia F, Nyúl, Boglárka, O'Keefe, Paul A, Osuna, Jose Javier Olivas, Osin, Evgeny N, Park, Joonha, Pica, Gennaro, Pierro, Antonio, Rees, Jonas H, Reitsema, Anne Margit, Resta, Elena, Rullo, Marika, Ryan, Michelle K, Samekin, Adil, Santtila, Pekka, Sasin, Edyta, Schumpe, Birga M, Selim, Heyla A, Stanton, Michael Vicente, Sultana, Samiah, Tseliou, Eleftheria, Utsugi, Akira, van Breen, Jolien A, Van Veen, Kees, vanDellen, Michelle R, Vázquez, Alexandra, Wollast, Robin, Yeung, Victoria Wai-lan, Zand, Somayeh, Žeželj, Iris Lav, Zheng, Bang, Zick, Andreas, Zúñiga, Claudia, Leander, N Pontus
• Format: Article
• Language: English; English
• Published: Wiley-Blackwell 2023
• Subjects: BF Psychology; HM Sociology; HM1001 Social psychology; RA Public aspects of medicine; RA644.C67 Coronavirus infections. COVID-19 (Disease). COVID-19 Pandemic, 2020
• Online Access: http://irep.iium.edu.my/105510/7/105510_Identifying%20important%20individual-%20and%20country-level%20predictors.pdf; http://irep.iium.edu.my/105510/13/105510_Identifying%20important%20individual-%20and%20country-level%20predictors_Scopus.pdf; http://irep.iium.edu.my/105510/; https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ejsp.2968
• Institution: Universiti Islam Antarabangsa Malaysia

Psychological research on the predictors of conspiracy theorizing—explaining important social and political events or circumstances as secret plots by malevolent groups—has flourished in recent years. However, research has typically examined only a small number of predictors in one, or a small number of, national contexts. Such approaches make it difficult to examine the relative importance of predictors, and risk overlooking some potentially relevant variables altogether. To overcome this limitation, the present study used machine learning to rank-order the importance of 115 individual- and country-level variables in predicting conspiracy theorizing. Data were collected from 56,072 respondents across 28 countries during the early weeks of the COVID-19 pandemic. Echoing previous findings, important predictors at the individual level included societal discontent, paranoia, and personal struggle. Contrary to prior research, important country-level predictors included indicators of political stability and effective government COVID response, which suggests that conspiracy theorizing may thrive in relatively well-functioning democracies.