Scenario modeling for dentistry in Malaysia: utilization, privatization, and specialization

Aim: To study to model future clinical dental workforce scenarios in Malaysia, in relation to population need–demand, to inform future change. Materials and Methods: A system dynamics (SD) model was developed in Vensim-software to model the need/ demand and supply for dental care across public–priva...

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Main Authors: Che Musa, Muhd Firdaus, Morgan, Jennifer, Harper, Paul, Bernabe, Eduardo, Gallagher, Jennifer E.
Format: Article
Language:English
English
English
Published: Wolters Kluwer 2024
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Online Access:http://irep.iium.edu.my/115414/1/115414_Scenario%20modeling%20for%20dentistry.pdf
http://irep.iium.edu.my/115414/7/115414_Scenario%20modeling%20for%20dentistry_WoS.pdf
http://irep.iium.edu.my/115414/8/115414_Scenario%20modeling%20for%20dentistry_Scopus.pdf
http://irep.iium.edu.my/115414/
https://journals.lww.com/jioh/fulltext/2024/16050/scenario_modeling_for_dentistry_in_malaysia_.9.aspx
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spelling my.iium.irep.1154142024-11-28T01:36:09Z http://irep.iium.edu.my/115414/ Scenario modeling for dentistry in Malaysia: utilization, privatization, and specialization Che Musa, Muhd Firdaus Morgan, Jennifer Harper, Paul Bernabe, Eduardo Gallagher, Jennifer E. RK Dentistry Aim: To study to model future clinical dental workforce scenarios in Malaysia, in relation to population need–demand, to inform future change. Materials and Methods: A system dynamics (SD) model was developed in Vensim-software to model the need/ demand and supply for dental care across public–private sectors over 3 decades (2010–2040). This model included two sub-models relating to “need/demand” and “supply,” drawing on national evidence from two previous studies (student career surveys and interviews of key stakeholders nationally), together with relevant available data. This SD model provided the baseline model (S1) for Malaysia and four-distinctive-scenarios (S2–5), involving enhancing generalists–specialists across public–private sectors. An additional scenario (S6) was run to optimize workforce utilization, informed by career expectations of emerging graduates drawing on earlier scenarios (S2–5). Results: Modeling future five-scenarios highlighted the gap in dental workforce nationally across both sectors could range from a surplus of a total of 3739 dentists and 817 therapists in the baseline scenario to a total shortfall of 1249 dentists and surplus of 817 therapists by the year 2040, influenced by dentist working patterns, specialization, and privatization. Increasing the potential for specialist training and permitting emerging graduates’ to working part-time, while optimizing public sector primary care, and responding to the career expectations of emerging graduates, has the potential to absorb potential oversupply, and, thus, utilize the entire clinician dental workforce in Malaysia in the medium term. Conclusion: The findings of this model demonstrate the short-term requirement to expand the Malaysian dental workforce to meet dental needs of the population, highlighting that continued production at the current rate will result in oversupply, unless action is taken to maximize primary care, enhance specialization, and embrace flexible working to meet career expectations of graduates. Wolters Kluwer 2024-10-29 Article PeerReviewed application/pdf en http://irep.iium.edu.my/115414/1/115414_Scenario%20modeling%20for%20dentistry.pdf application/pdf en http://irep.iium.edu.my/115414/7/115414_Scenario%20modeling%20for%20dentistry_WoS.pdf application/pdf en http://irep.iium.edu.my/115414/8/115414_Scenario%20modeling%20for%20dentistry_Scopus.pdf Che Musa, Muhd Firdaus and Morgan, Jennifer and Harper, Paul and Bernabe, Eduardo and Gallagher, Jennifer E. (2024) Scenario modeling for dentistry in Malaysia: utilization, privatization, and specialization. Journal of International Oral Health, 16 (5). pp. 403-413. https://journals.lww.com/jioh/fulltext/2024/16050/scenario_modeling_for_dentistry_in_malaysia_.9.aspx 10.4103/jioh.jioh_133_24
institution Universiti Islam Antarabangsa Malaysia
building IIUM Library
collection Institutional Repository
continent Asia
country Malaysia
content_provider International Islamic University Malaysia
content_source IIUM Repository (IREP)
url_provider http://irep.iium.edu.my/
language English
English
English
topic RK Dentistry
spellingShingle RK Dentistry
Che Musa, Muhd Firdaus
Morgan, Jennifer
Harper, Paul
Bernabe, Eduardo
Gallagher, Jennifer E.
Scenario modeling for dentistry in Malaysia: utilization, privatization, and specialization
description Aim: To study to model future clinical dental workforce scenarios in Malaysia, in relation to population need–demand, to inform future change. Materials and Methods: A system dynamics (SD) model was developed in Vensim-software to model the need/ demand and supply for dental care across public–private sectors over 3 decades (2010–2040). This model included two sub-models relating to “need/demand” and “supply,” drawing on national evidence from two previous studies (student career surveys and interviews of key stakeholders nationally), together with relevant available data. This SD model provided the baseline model (S1) for Malaysia and four-distinctive-scenarios (S2–5), involving enhancing generalists–specialists across public–private sectors. An additional scenario (S6) was run to optimize workforce utilization, informed by career expectations of emerging graduates drawing on earlier scenarios (S2–5). Results: Modeling future five-scenarios highlighted the gap in dental workforce nationally across both sectors could range from a surplus of a total of 3739 dentists and 817 therapists in the baseline scenario to a total shortfall of 1249 dentists and surplus of 817 therapists by the year 2040, influenced by dentist working patterns, specialization, and privatization. Increasing the potential for specialist training and permitting emerging graduates’ to working part-time, while optimizing public sector primary care, and responding to the career expectations of emerging graduates, has the potential to absorb potential oversupply, and, thus, utilize the entire clinician dental workforce in Malaysia in the medium term. Conclusion: The findings of this model demonstrate the short-term requirement to expand the Malaysian dental workforce to meet dental needs of the population, highlighting that continued production at the current rate will result in oversupply, unless action is taken to maximize primary care, enhance specialization, and embrace flexible working to meet career expectations of graduates.
format Article
author Che Musa, Muhd Firdaus
Morgan, Jennifer
Harper, Paul
Bernabe, Eduardo
Gallagher, Jennifer E.
author_facet Che Musa, Muhd Firdaus
Morgan, Jennifer
Harper, Paul
Bernabe, Eduardo
Gallagher, Jennifer E.
author_sort Che Musa, Muhd Firdaus
title Scenario modeling for dentistry in Malaysia: utilization, privatization, and specialization
title_short Scenario modeling for dentistry in Malaysia: utilization, privatization, and specialization
title_full Scenario modeling for dentistry in Malaysia: utilization, privatization, and specialization
title_fullStr Scenario modeling for dentistry in Malaysia: utilization, privatization, and specialization
title_full_unstemmed Scenario modeling for dentistry in Malaysia: utilization, privatization, and specialization
title_sort scenario modeling for dentistry in malaysia: utilization, privatization, and specialization
publisher Wolters Kluwer
publishDate 2024
url http://irep.iium.edu.my/115414/1/115414_Scenario%20modeling%20for%20dentistry.pdf
http://irep.iium.edu.my/115414/7/115414_Scenario%20modeling%20for%20dentistry_WoS.pdf
http://irep.iium.edu.my/115414/8/115414_Scenario%20modeling%20for%20dentistry_Scopus.pdf
http://irep.iium.edu.my/115414/
https://journals.lww.com/jioh/fulltext/2024/16050/scenario_modeling_for_dentistry_in_malaysia_.9.aspx
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