Future projections of extreme precipitation using Advanced Weather Generator (AWE-GEN) over Peninsular Malaysia
A stochastic downscaling methodology known as the Advanced Weather Generator, AWE-GEN, has been tested at four stations in Peninsular Malaysia using observations available from 1975 to 2005. The methodology involves a stochastic downscaling procedure based on a Bayesian approach. Climate statistic...
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| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Conference or Workshop Item |
| Language: | English English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2014
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://irep.iium.edu.my/51571/4/51571.pdf http://irep.iium.edu.my/51571/5/51571-Future_projections_of_extreme_precipitation_using_Advanced_Weather_Generator_%28AWE-GEN%29_over_Peninsular_Malaysia_SCOPUS.pdf http://irep.iium.edu.my/51571/ http://www.proc-iahs.net/364/106/2014/ |
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| Institution: | Universiti Islam Antarabangsa Malaysia |
| Language: | English English |
| Summary: | A stochastic downscaling methodology known as the Advanced Weather Generator, AWE-GEN,
has been tested at four stations in Peninsular Malaysia using observations available from 1975 to 2005. The
methodology involves a stochastic downscaling procedure based on a Bayesian approach. Climate statistics
from a multi-model ensemble of General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs were calculated and factors of
change were derived to produce the probability distribution functions (PDF). New parameters were obtained
to project future climate time series. A multi-model ensemble was used in this study. The projections of
extreme precipitation were based on the RCP 6.0 scenario (2081–2100). The model was able to simulate
both hourly and 24-h extreme precipitation, as well as wet spell durations quite well for almost all regions.
However, the performance of GCM models varies significantly in all regions showing high variability of
monthly precipitation for both observed and future periods. The extreme precipitation for both hourly and
24-h seems to increase in future, while extreme of wet spells remain unchanged, up to the return periods of
10–40 years |
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