Simulation model on the potential us of Vibrio cholorae as a biological agent of terror and simulated economic impact in Nigeria.

• Main Author: Pwaveno Huladeino Bamaiyi
• Format: Non-Indexed Article
• Published: 2014
• Online Access: http://discol.umk.edu.my/id/eprint/7970/; http://www.scopemed.org/fulltextpdf.php?mno=156696
• Institution: Universiti Malaysia Kelantan

A simulation model study was carried out on the use of Vibrio cholerae as a bioweapon on the Nigerian population by a hypothetical terrorist group that starts by infecting people with live cultures of V. cholerae in water and food sources in Kano and then the rest of the country. This study was carried out to understand the potentials of a bioterrorist on a developing economy like Nigeria. The simulation was carried out for a simulated period of 3 months using the Spatiotemporal Epidemiological Modeler (STEM) with two scenarios and utilizing available data in the STEM software and published literature. The first scenario in which there was no intervention against cholera for three months had a total incidence of 7,222,499 and total deaths of 25,300,670. In the second scenario in which intervention started on day 28 of the 3 month period, the incidence was 422,142 and total deaths were 1,549,427. Economic implications of combating the cholera outbreak of the first scenario were USD2.1 billion and for the second scenario outbreak USD114.5 million for a total of 538 towns and locations simulated. The difference between the first and second scenarios was statistically significant (P<0.01). Towns and locations with large and overcrowded populations showed higher incidences, infections, death rates and economic losses. The case is made for proper preparedness strategies that can neutralize or minimize the effects of a potential bioterrorist attack on a developing economy like Nigeria which is already overburdened by other economic and developmental challenges.