Forecasting the Malaysian crude palm oil price during COVID-19 pandemic

Purpose: Commodities forecasting can lead to an important element in commodities industry to ensure that each investment by individuals, companies and government was worth it. This study applied exponential smoothing models for analysis and forecasting the crude palm oil (CPO) price in Malaysia duri...

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Main Authors: Megat Muainuddin, Megat Muhammad Afif, Abu, Noratikah
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: GBMR Journal 2021
Subjects:
Online Access:http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/35155/1/2021%20IEBMC%20CPO%20during%20Covid-19.pdf
http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/35155/
http://www.gbmrjournal.com/pdf/v13n4s/V13N4s-50.pdf
http://www.gbmrjournal.com/pdf/v13n4s/V13N4s-50.pdf
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Institution: Universiti Malaysia Pahang
Language: English
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spelling my.ump.umpir.351552022-10-12T07:41:59Z http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/35155/ Forecasting the Malaysian crude palm oil price during COVID-19 pandemic Megat Muainuddin, Megat Muhammad Afif Abu, Noratikah QA Mathematics Purpose: Commodities forecasting can lead to an important element in commodities industry to ensure that each investment by individuals, companies and government was worth it. This study applied exponential smoothing models for analysis and forecasting the crude palm oil (CPO) price in Malaysia during COVID-19 pandemic. Design/methodology/approach: The data used in this study is daily data of CPO price from March 2020 until May 2021. Findings: Results obtained by applying exponential smoothing models and numerical calculation shows that it is effective for forecasting the number of CPO price. The best models are single exponential smoothing model were chosen by selecting the lowest value of forecast errors using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean absolute deviation (MAD) and mean square deviation (MSD) as forecast evaluation. As a conclusion, single exponential model gives significant result to be the best model to forecast compared to exponential smoothing models. Research limitations/implications: The analysis on the comparison between others commodity could be an analysis for future study. Practical implications: This study contribute to the literature on the impact of COVID-19 towards palm oil industries in Malaysia. Originality/value: This study will provide an understanding on forecasting crude palm oil price in Malaysia and this study is among the pioneerstudy in Malaysia that focus on the impact of COVID-19 towards crude palm oil price. Paper type: Research paper GBMR Journal 2021 Article PeerReviewed pdf en http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/35155/1/2021%20IEBMC%20CPO%20during%20Covid-19.pdf Megat Muainuddin, Megat Muhammad Afif and Abu, Noratikah (2021) Forecasting the Malaysian crude palm oil price during COVID-19 pandemic. Global Business and Management Research: An International Journal, 13 (4s). pp. 564-574. ISSN 1947-5667 http://www.gbmrjournal.com/pdf/v13n4s/V13N4s-50.pdf http://www.gbmrjournal.com/pdf/v13n4s/V13N4s-50.pdf
institution Universiti Malaysia Pahang
building UMP Library
collection Institutional Repository
continent Asia
country Malaysia
content_provider Universiti Malaysia Pahang
content_source UMP Institutional Repository
url_provider http://umpir.ump.edu.my/
language English
topic QA Mathematics
spellingShingle QA Mathematics
Megat Muainuddin, Megat Muhammad Afif
Abu, Noratikah
Forecasting the Malaysian crude palm oil price during COVID-19 pandemic
description Purpose: Commodities forecasting can lead to an important element in commodities industry to ensure that each investment by individuals, companies and government was worth it. This study applied exponential smoothing models for analysis and forecasting the crude palm oil (CPO) price in Malaysia during COVID-19 pandemic. Design/methodology/approach: The data used in this study is daily data of CPO price from March 2020 until May 2021. Findings: Results obtained by applying exponential smoothing models and numerical calculation shows that it is effective for forecasting the number of CPO price. The best models are single exponential smoothing model were chosen by selecting the lowest value of forecast errors using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean absolute deviation (MAD) and mean square deviation (MSD) as forecast evaluation. As a conclusion, single exponential model gives significant result to be the best model to forecast compared to exponential smoothing models. Research limitations/implications: The analysis on the comparison between others commodity could be an analysis for future study. Practical implications: This study contribute to the literature on the impact of COVID-19 towards palm oil industries in Malaysia. Originality/value: This study will provide an understanding on forecasting crude palm oil price in Malaysia and this study is among the pioneerstudy in Malaysia that focus on the impact of COVID-19 towards crude palm oil price. Paper type: Research paper
format Article
author Megat Muainuddin, Megat Muhammad Afif
Abu, Noratikah
author_facet Megat Muainuddin, Megat Muhammad Afif
Abu, Noratikah
author_sort Megat Muainuddin, Megat Muhammad Afif
title Forecasting the Malaysian crude palm oil price during COVID-19 pandemic
title_short Forecasting the Malaysian crude palm oil price during COVID-19 pandemic
title_full Forecasting the Malaysian crude palm oil price during COVID-19 pandemic
title_fullStr Forecasting the Malaysian crude palm oil price during COVID-19 pandemic
title_full_unstemmed Forecasting the Malaysian crude palm oil price during COVID-19 pandemic
title_sort forecasting the malaysian crude palm oil price during covid-19 pandemic
publisher GBMR Journal
publishDate 2021
url http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/35155/1/2021%20IEBMC%20CPO%20during%20Covid-19.pdf
http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/35155/
http://www.gbmrjournal.com/pdf/v13n4s/V13N4s-50.pdf
http://www.gbmrjournal.com/pdf/v13n4s/V13N4s-50.pdf
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