The transmission mechanism of business cycles among asean-5, China, Japan and South Korea

• Main Author: Arunnan, Balasubramaniam
• Format: Final Year Project Report
• Language: English
• Published: UNIMAS 2009
• Subjects: HB Economic Theory
• Online Access: http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/7076/10/Arunnan%20Bala%20Subramaniam%20ft.pdf; http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/7076/
• Institution: Universiti Malaysia Sarawak

This study aims to examine the business cycles transmissions among ASEAN+3 countries which became increasingly integrated via market-driven trade and investments.An autoregressive VAR model is used to inspect the business cycles causal linkages.The results indicate ASEAN-5 have significant influence of business cycles among one and another. The results show that ASEAN-5 with China has leading business cycles transmission vice versa followed by ASEAN-5 with South Korea and finally ASEAN-5 with Japan.It establishes bidirectional causal interplays upon the business cycles of ASEAN+3 countries to confirm there is transmissions of shocks between these economies. Therefore, this study suggests integration mechanism is prominent for these economies to establish intra -regional mutual demand and supply to reduce dependence on extra-regional dominant powers