Multi-Step Ahead Time-Series Forecasting of Sediment Load Using NARX Neural Networks

• Main Authors: Solihin M.I., Hayder G., Maarif H.A.-Q., Khan Q.
• Other Authors: 16644075500
• Format: Conference Paper
• Published: Springer Nature 2024
• Subjects: Multi-step ahead forecasting; NARX; Neural networks; River system; Sediment load
• Institution: Universiti Tenaga Nasional

River sedimentation is a universal issue in a river catchment. It can affect the reservoir ability, the river flow, and dam structure including the hydropower capacity. Therefore, having multi-step ahead forecasting for the sediment load is beneficial in terms of research and applications. This study discusses and presents a case study in multi-step ahead forecasting for the sediment load using non-linear autoregressive with exogenous inputs (NARX) neural networks. We use sediment data that was recorded from 8 locations in the Ringlet reservoir (upstream sections) in Malaysia. The results suggest that the NARX neural networks have good capability to do multi-step ahead forecasting for sediment load in a recursive way (closed-loop mode) based on its past values and the past values of suspended solid and discharge. The model is evaluated with performance metrics yielding NSE = 0.99 (Nash�Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient) for both the training and test dataset, and RMSE (root means square error) of 0.22 and 0.25, respectively, training and test dataset. � 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.