Forecasting The Decision Based On Risk Perception Using Bayesian Game Theory Approach In Preventing Hand, Foot And Mouth Disease (Hfmd) In Pulau Pinang, Malaysia

• Main Author: Abu Mansor, Siti Nurleena
• Format: Thesis
• Language: English
• Published: 2023
• Subjects: QA1 Mathematics (General)
• Online Access: http://eprints.usm.my/60211/1/24%20Pages%20from%20SITI%20NURLEENA%20BINTI%20ABU%20MANSOR.pdf; http://eprints.usm.my/60211/
• Institution: Universiti Sains Malaysia

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is amongst common diseases which often occurs in outbreaks and up to now, there is no effective vaccine yet to be found. Known to be caused by enterovirus usually typed Coxsackie virus A16 and Enterovirus 71, this disease is common among infants and children below the age of five. In this research, the HFMD epidemic models in Seberang Perai Tengah, Pulau Pinang are examined. Number of cases in epidemic week are used to compare HFMD epidemic model with and without virus shedding in the environment and contemplate their reproduction numbers. Furthermore, human behaviour has become the main factor in HFMD disease transmission systems. The effectiveness of interventions is largely dependent on the behaviour of the population. Risk perception shapes human behaviours in many ways, especially in decision making. Here, the factors that determine parents’ risk perception on HFMD disease and how they quantify their level of risk are explored. Factors such as knowledge of HFMD, health beliefs, preventive behaviour, and experienced with HFMD are put together and analysed to develop a framework to show the relationship with risk perception. Moreover, when making decisions related to health behaviours, one's decisions do not influence the decisions of others.