Maternally derived immunity, susceptible, infected and recovered (msir) model for pandemic covid-19 forecasting in Malaysia

• Main Author: Jalaluddin, Mohamed Lokman
• Format: Thesis
• Language: English; English
• Published: 2022
• Subjects: T Technology (General); TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
• Online Access: http://eprints.utem.edu.my/id/eprint/26633/1/Maternally%20derived%20immunity%2C%20susceptible%2C%20infected%20and%20recovered%20%28msir%29%20model%20for%20pandemic%20covid-19%20forecasting%20in%20Malaysia.pdf; http://eprints.utem.edu.my/id/eprint/26633/2/Maternally%20derived%20immunity%2C%20susceptible%2C%20infected%20and%20recovered%20%28msir%29%20model%20for%20pandemic%20covid-19%20forecasting%20in%20Malaysia.pdf; http://eprints.utem.edu.my/id/eprint/26633/; https://plh.utem.edu.my/cgi-bin/koha/opac-detail.pl?biblionumber=121751
• Institution: Universiti Teknikal Malaysia Melaka

Since its discovery in late 2019 in Wuhan, China, Coronavirus 19 (COVID-19) has swept the globe. COVID-19 was discovered in Malaysia on January 25, 2020. Because there is so little knowledge of virus activity, numerous forecast models are utilised all around the world to make choices and take measures. As a result, a new model called Maternally derived Immunity, Susceptible, Infected and Recovered (MSIR) is proposed in this study, which is based on the SIR model. There is no reliable formula for the Maternally derived Immunity, Susceptible, -Infected and Recovered (MSIR) model by analytical solution in Malaysia. Besides, there is no comprehensive method of measuring the effectiveness of countermeasure that has been carried out. In addition, there is no beneficial way of forecasting unexpected cases of COVID-19 that will affect the growth of the economy, especially in manufacturing industries. So in this study, formulate an MSIR model by analytical solution. After formulate the MSIR model by analytical solution, validate the equation by the data from the MSIR model by the analytical solution is approximate to the real-world data. In that case, the MSIR model by the analytical solution is achieved. Then, measure the effect of countermeasure which is booster vaccines applied to reducing the spread of COVID-19 by effective reproductive number. Effective reproductive number, Rt can be represented as 13/y in the MSIR Model. ß/y provided that the infected individual recovers in l/y day (on average) and has contact with 13 (on average) persons during the infectious time. The average effective reproductive number is 0.92. Rt is below than 1 (Rt < 1), the COVID-19 epidemic in Malaysia will be eliminated. Finally, forecast COVID-19 of effective reproductive number to show the effect of awareness in the manufacturing industry in Malaysia. The equation of MSIR model by analytical solution represent the COVID-19 in Malaysia. So, the MSIR model equation can be utilised by analytical solution through booster vaccination and effective reproductive number, Rt, in Malaysia. This MSIR model by analytical solution can be apply in industry to easily forecast the effective reproductive number, Rt. Through forecasting can stabilise the effect of the growth of the economy, especially in manufacturing industries. It can be used as a reference for the future spread of disease which could lead to epidemic or pandemic in manufacturing industries.