Forecasting electricity consumption using SARIMA method in IBM SPSS software

• Main Authors: Sze, En Sim, Kim, Gaik Tay, Huong, Audrey, Wei, King Tiong
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: HRPub 2019
• Subjects: TK3001-3521 Distribution or transmission of electric power
• Online Access: http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/606/1/DNJ9641_67e9a2d2c72cca3bad73e06e8e2d4918.pdf; http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/606/; https://doi.org/10.13189/ujeee.2019.061614
• Institution: Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia

Forecasting is a prediction of future values based on historical data. It can be conducted using various methods such as statistical methods or machine learning techniques. Electricity is a necessity of modern life. Hence, accurate forecasting of electricity demand is important. Overestimation will cause a waste of energy but underestimation leads to higher operation costs. Univesity Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia (UTHM) is a developing Malaysian technical university, therefore there is a need to forecast UTHM electricity consumption for future decisions on generating electric power, load switching, and infrastructure development. The monthly UTHM electricity consumption data exhibits seasonality-periodic fluctuations. Thus, the seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) method was applied in IBM SPSS software to predict UTHM electricity consumption for 2019 via Box-Jenkins method and Expert Modeler. There were a total of 120 observations taken from January year 2009 to December year 2018 to build the models. The best model from both methods is SARIMA(0, 1, 1)(0, 1, 1)12. It was found that the result through the Box-Jenkins method is approximately the same with the result generated through Expert Modeler in SPSS with MAPE of 8.4%.