Migrasi dalaman dan hubungannya dengan pembolehubah makroekonomi di Malaysia

• Main Author: Nor Ermawati, Hussain
• Format: Thesis
• Language: English; English
• Published: 2015
• Subjects: HC Economic History and Conditions
• Online Access: http://etd.uum.edu.my/6080/
• Institution: Universiti Utara Malaysia

Internal migration refers to the migration of people that occurs within a country, whether cross-border of regions or state boundaries. For some states, in-migration causes population density, competition for employment, unemployment and poverty in urban areas. But for some states, in-migration of professional workers is important to improve the economic growth in that area. The objective of this study was to analyze the relationship that exists between in-migration and macroeconomic determinant factors, particularly population, foreign investment, domestic investment, household income, unemployment, poverty and labor force participation in the short- and long- terms, and thus make an in-migration forecast. By using time series data of 33 years starting from 1980 to 2012 obtained from the 14 states, ordinary least squared (OLS), causality test, autocorrelation distributed lag (ARDL) and forecasting tests were carried out. This study found that at least one independent variable for each state has a causal relationship with internal migration. It was also found that there is a significant relationship between foreign direct investment and in-migration in several states in the long- term, while for the short- term relationship, there is no independent variable which is significant with in-migration in Kelantan and Sabah. The forecast result for the year 2020 is: in eight states the percentage of migration will decrease, in five states it is expected to increase, while the percentage of migration into the state of Kelantan is not expected to change. In-migration has caused problems and need special attention from the government. Foreign direct investment and domestic investment are uneven and just focus on developed areas and encourage people to migrate. Some states which have a positive relationship between foreign direct investment and domestic investment with in-migration, should maintain the existing policy, or at least improve their policies in order to increase economic growth.