Assessment of Global Warming Impacts on Paddy Rice Growth And Yield Using a Process-Based Numerical Crop Growth Model Matcro-Rice in Thai Binh Province, Vietnam

• Main Author: Đào, Thị Thu Hằng
• Other Authors: YUJI, MASUTOMI
• Format: Theses and Dissertations
• Language: English
• Published: 2020
• Subjects: Global warming scenarios ; Rice production ; Crop growth model; Biến đổi khí hậu ; Lúa > Sản xuất ; Mô hình tăng trưởng cây trồng; 333.953
• Online Access: http://repository.vnu.edu.vn/handle/VNU_123/93346
• Institution: Vietnam National University, Hanoi

Rice is directly feeding more people than any other crops. Vietnam is one of the largest exporters of rice with the main supply from Red River Delta. Rice production in Red River Delta is susceptible to yield reduction from rising temperature. Thus, understanding the impacts of global warming on rice production is essential to food security in Vietnam in the near future. This research used a reliable data of crop management in Thai Binh, located province in Red River Delta. To simulate the rice production, I used the crop growth model, MATCRO-Rice, first the model needs to be parameterized the phenology and dry matter partitioning, then I validated by comparing the simulated yield to observe yield. Next, the model was used to predict the changes of rice production under 4 warming scenarios (1.5 oC, 2 oC, 3 oC and 4 oC). Results show that the yield reduction happened in all of warming scenarios and decline up to 39% compare with observe yields. The yield will be improved by adding more fertilizer, but this application cannot offset the losses due to rising temperature. This research got some limitation from both data and model, but it can contribute to the development of a national adaptation plan with a scientific basis.