On US-China’s Thucydides’ Trap: A Historical Analysis of the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement and its Repercussions on the South China Sea Dispute

• Main Authors: Flores, Marcus P., Rosales, Jhon Mark M.
• Format: text
• Published: Animo Repository 2023
• Subjects: alliances; defense; geopolitics; international relations; regional security
• Online Access: https://animorepository.dlsu.edu.ph/conf_shsrescon/2023/paper_tph/2; https://animorepository.dlsu.edu.ph/context/conf_shsrescon/article/1844/viewcontent/On_US_China_s_Thucydides__Trap__A_Historical_Analysis_of_the_Enhanced_Defense_Cooperation_Agreement_and_its_Repercussions_on_the_South_China_Sea_Dispute.docx__1_.pdf
• Institution: De La Salle University

Since the end of the Second World War, the Philippines and the United States of America have had a special defense relationship, set into stone by the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT). The conception of the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) in 2014 strengthened this relationship, and solidified the Philippines’ position under the contemporary regional defense umbrella of the USA in the South China Sea. However, the rise of China as a global economic and military superpower has made the South China Sea a contentious region in international security affairs, as China challenges the hegemony of the United States. This paper analyzed how the EDCA affects China-US rivalry through the theoretical lens of Allison’s Thucydides’ Trap in comparison to the Russo-Japanese war’s historical context of previous ruling versus rising power war propensities. Textual analysis of the EDCA document and legal provisions of the Philippine government regarding the agreement were utilized to further inspect the role of the Philippines in the tensions, and its possible middle ground capacity. It concluded that the EDCA’s increased provisions for interoperability and military bases heightens the defense threat to Chinese regional interests, and Beijing’s actions in the West Philippine Sea reflected this. The Philippines is then likely to become one of the exacerbating factors in the rising conflict between the United States and China as it balances diplomatic relationships with both parties amidst escalatory security dilemmas.