A system dynamics study on the dynamic evacuation decisions of coastal communities in Region IV-A

• Main Author: Lim, Bryanne Clarice D.
• Format: text
• Language: English
• Published: Animo Repository 2018
• Subjects: Emergency management; Evacuation of civilians; Emergency and Disaster Management; Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering
• Online Access: https://animorepository.dlsu.edu.ph/etd_bachelors/18656
• Institution: De La Salle University

Evacuation during disasters is a critical process that decreases the exposure of vulnerable entities to the forthcoming hazard. Various disaster management institutions have placed great significance in evacuation planning. However, despite having the necessary disaster evacuation plans and response protocol, disaster evacuation processes still fail to achieve consistent high evacuation percentages. Aside from the management aspects of evacuation planning, the behavioral response from the affected population also proves to be a crucial part iJJ dealing with disaster crises. It is worthwhile to investigate why people opt to disregard evacuation orders despite persistence by governing bodies. The study aims to determine what factors drive the dynamic behavior of average annual evacuation percentage in the coastal communities along Laguna de Bay. Using a system dynamics methodology, the study analyzes year to year interactions between variables that influence evacuation decisions. The model integrates hard and soft variables in order to see how managerial decision making, as well as the unique aspects of the geographical area, could influence the behavioral responses of vulnerable individuals. The dynamic model constructed will help in the better understanding of behavioral decisions in response to disaster protocols. Results of the study suggest that the dynamism of the evacuation percentage is primarily caused by the changing willingness of coastal residents to comply to evacuation orders. Sensitivity tests of different variables that affect the willingness to evacuate were conducted and plausible alternatives involving the manipulation of significant control variables were proposed for the improvement of the evacuation percentage behavior through time.