Forecasting Metro trail transit 3 ridership using univariate box-Jenkins methodology

• Main Authors: Pineda, Stephanie Kristen C., Sarmiento, Anna Christina F.
• Format: text
• Language: English
• Published: Animo Repository 2009
• Subjects: Local transit > Ridership > Philippines > Forecasting; Box-Jenkins forecasting; Statistics and Probability
• Online Access: https://animorepository.dlsu.edu.ph/etd_bachelors/5029
• Institution: De La Salle University

This paper, through the Univariate Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) technique, described the variation in and forecasted the ridership of the Metro Rail Transit 3 (MRT3). Using the historical plot, this study revealed that there was an increasing trend and a seasonal component. Based on the quartic root and natural logarithmic transformed series with first regular-first seasonal differencing, a best fitted model to describe the ridership: zt = 0o - 01at-1 -- 01,12at-12+ 0101,12at - 13 + at was generated. The integration of seasonal and nonseasonal moving average model was able to obtain the forecast values for 2009.;" The model identified was adequate for the actual value of ridership was found between the confidence interval of the forecasted values. Implication includes the application of time series analysis in general and Univariate Box-Jenkins technique in particular, on railway transportation management in the Philippines."