Energy and environmental benefits and implication of various fuel economy policies for private passenger vehicles in Metro Manila

• Main Author: Rith, Monorom
• Format: text
• Language: English
• Published: Animo Repository 2019
• Subjects: Automobiles—Fuel consumption; Energy policy > Philippines > Metro Manila; Civil and Environmental Engineering; Transportation Engineering
• Online Access: https://animorepository.dlsu.edu.ph/etd_doctoral/1500
• Institution: De La Salle University

A sound understanding of determinants of household vehicle ownership and usage is widely accepted as the prerequisite of designing proactive policies to discourage private vehicle dependency, thereby achieving sustainable urbanism and mobility. The thrust of this study is to understand the impact of socioeconomic characteristics, urban form attributes, and taxes on gas and vehicle on a number of vehicles owned by households and energy consumption in Metro Manila, Philippines. The study modified and applied the Gaussian copula-based multinomial logit (MNL)-linear regression model for a discrete choice having no continuous choice (e.g., households having no car have zero energy consumption) to develop the household vehicle ownership and energy consumption model at the household-disaggregated level using the unique data sample of 1,795 households gathered in April through May 2017. The model estimation results highlight that higher-income households are more likely to acquire more vehicles and consume energy, while households residing in an area with high accessibility to key destinations are less willing to own and use vehicles. Furthermore, an increase in taxes on gas and vehicle discourages private vehicle dependency. A 1% gas price increase, a 1% vehicle cost increase, and 1% accessibility improvement would have reduced the vehicle usage by 0.254%, 0.380%, and 1.359%, respectively. Consequently, improvement of accessibility has a greater impact than an increase in gas price and vehicle cost on the reduction in private vehicle usage. Also, the developed model of household vehicle ownership and usage was applied to extrapolate vehicle stock, a total of new vehicle sales, vehicle scrappage intensity, private vehicle kilometer traveled (VKT), energy demand, CO2 and pollutant emissions, public health impact, tax revenues on gas and vehicle, and net value during 2010-2050 under different formulated scenarios. Under the baseline scenario, the energy demand for private vehicles is 1.11 Mtoe in 2010 and will increases 4.9 times to 5.45 Mtoe in 2050, while the CO2 emissions will rise from 3.44 Mt in 2010 to 16.93 Mt in 2050 with an average annual growth rate of 9.8%. The new tax schedule of TRAIN law of the Philippine government being implemented is the main contributor to increasing tax revenue but has no significant impact on energy conservation and emissions mitigation. Improvement of accessibility can suppress private vehicle stock, private vehicle usage, energy demand, and CO2 emissions but does not mitigate air pollutant emissions and improve public health if the road-based public transport mode is not modernized. Penetration of Euro 6 emission compliant passenger vehicles from 2025 and phasing in Euro 4 PUJs and buses from 2020 lead to energy saving and CO2 and pollutant emissions abatement, public health improvement, and net value enhancement. Based on the empirical findings, the integration of all the mentioned low-carbon alternatives is the best option for transport and energy policies and urban planning to achieve sustainable urbanism and mobility and social development. The transport policy implications are also introduced to assist policymakers and practitioners.