An application of Monte Carlo analysis: A simulation study

• Main Author: Calanog, Marciano M.
• Format: text
• Language: English
• Published: Animo Repository 1973
• Subjects: Petroleum refineries > Philippines > Batangas; Monte Carlo method; Bulk queues; Oil, Gas, and Energy
• Online Access: https://animorepository.dlsu.edu.ph/etd_masteral/226
• Institution: De La Salle University

The queueing problem at the oil wharf of Batangas Refinery has growth to an amount beyond the economical operating level. This prompted the refinery management to request the writer to explore deeply into the problem. The problem arose when the plant throughout was increased by 10,000 BBL/day. This resulted in more tankers and barges to dock-in thereby producing higher wharf occupancy. Tankers have to wait for a berthing space. Batangas refinery is often penalized for its inability to service the tankers on time. Tanker owners charged 2,922 to 40,200 pesos per day of delay. Since the cost of delay is directly associated with waiting time, the solution then is to reduce it. Their technical alternatives are open for consideration - to add an additional service facility, to reduce the service time by increasing shipping rates, or a combination of the above. Monte Carlo simulation was used in this study in determining the waiting time because the mathematical methods offered by authorities on the subject are too complex to be applied. The accuracy of the method was checked by comparing the result of the study against the actual waiting time. Accuracy was about 87 percent. In the final analysis, the study revealed that it would be more economical for Batangas Refinery to add a new service facility, i.e., to extend the existing service wharf.