An econometric model of the demand, supply and price of forest product industry in the Philippines, 1970-1988

• Main Author: Matibag, Maritoni Carmela De Castro
• Format: text
• Language: English
• Published: Animo Repository 1991
• Subjects: Econometrics; Forest and forestry > Economic aspects > Mathematical models; Supply and demand; Economics; Mathematical
• Online Access: https://animorepository.dlsu.edu.ph/etd_masteral/1372
• Institution: De La Salle University

An econometric model of the domestic supply, demand and price of logs, lumber, plywood and veneer was constructed and estimated by ordinary least square (OLS) method. In general, the model has performed well as exemplified by a high adjusted Re and F-ratio values. The model has a good tracking performance and accuracy in forecasting. The average root mean squared percentage error (RMSPE) was 18 percent with an average Theil inequality coefficient of 0.29 percent. Further, ex-post forecasting results showed that the model has performed well outside the sample period. The domestic demand, supply and price of forest products were affected by the one percent increase in the number of timber licensees issued, export of forest products, minimum wage rate and the earlier implementation of the log export ban. Lastly, the implementation of Senate Bill No. 1404 (total logging ban) will result in a decrease in the domestic demand and supply of forest products. However, it will increase their domestic prices.