Establishing natural gas sustainability indicators for ASEAN producers through factor analysis on multivariate time series

• Main Authors: Manito, Aliyah Margaret Villacorta, Ngo, Melodie Dy
• Format: text
• Language: English
• Published: Animo Repository 2022
• Subjects: Natural gas > Southeast Asia; Mathematics
• Online Access: https://animorepository.dlsu.edu.ph/etdb_math/22; https://animorepository.dlsu.edu.ph/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1022&context=etdb_math
• Institution: De La Salle University

Natural gas is a type of fossil fuel that emits lower levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) compared to other fossil fuels, such as oil and coal. Given this information, natural gas is viewed as a transitional energy source toward clean renewable energy. With the ongoing struggle against climate change, natural gas addresses gaps in carbon reduction plans that renewable energy cannot do, substantiated by issues in infrastructure and policy planning. This paper examines the sustainability of the natural gas industry of the seven natural gas-producing member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). It aims to establish natural gas sustainability indicators, evaluate the socioeconomic, environmental, and political factors related to the aforementioned industry of the ASEAN, and determine any intercorrelations among the countries’ natural gas production, consumption, carbon emissions, GDP, natural gas rents, governance indicators, and urban population percentage. Annual data from 2002 to 2019 was used and factor analysis was performed on the multivariate time series data to determine the indicators. It was identified that governance and economic activity are determinants of natural gas sustainability. Among the seven countries, Brunei had the best scores on both governance and economic activity. A secondary analysis was conducted using the Granger causality approach. Results showed that dry natural gas production has the most mutual causality presence among the variables.