Spatiotemporal analysis of actual monthly prices for milkfish, round scad, and tilapia in Philippine provinces from May 2020 to December 2022

• Main Authors: Albo, Aeram Clester Aguilar, Fernando, Lance Ramos, Villaflor, Catherine Joy Añabeza
• Format: text
• Language: English
• Published: Animo Repository 2023
• Subjects: Tilapia > Prices > Philippines; Milkfish > Prices > Philippines; Statistics and Probability
• Online Access: https://animorepository.dlsu.edu.ph/etdb_math/30; https://animorepository.dlsu.edu.ph/context/etdb_math/article/1032/viewcontent/2023_Albo_Fernando_Villaflor_Spatiotemporal_analysis_of_actual_monthly_prices_Full_text.pdf
• Institution: De La Salle University

At the onset of the pandemic and lockdown protocols, given its geography, the Philippines significantly suffered from provincial price gaps for fish species like milkfish, tilapia, and round scad, which are among the most consumed fresh fish in the country. This study aimed to analyze the interactions of their monthly prices recorded by the Philippine Statistics Authority—with the Philippine provinces as the spatial domain and the months from May 2020 to December 2022 being the temporal domain. First conducting the spatial analysis, the greatest and most consistent spatial autocorrelation was found within 125 km for tilapia and round scad, and within 150 km for milkfish. The box maps and LISA cluster maps of their average prices showed that Luzon and Mindanao dictated the milkfish prices, Visayas and Mindanao the round scad prices, and Luzon the tilapia prices—all of which were confirmed by descriptive statistics. Conducting the temporal analysis, the Philippines lacked market integration on all three fish species but had minimized asymmetric price transmission—indicating minimal market failure in the country. However, the Granger causality results showed their rarity, more so with bidirectional causality, suggesting generally poor price transmission between provinces. Through its local units, the government is encouraged to further improve the marketing infrastructure and transporting facilities, especially for provinces often distant from fishing grounds and/or hatcheries. Furthermore, they must also continually craft and improve policies not only to provide food security for all three species, but to also prepare for future extreme events like the pandemic.