Scenario analysis of policies supporting electric jeepney adoption using hybrid agent-based system dynamics model

• Main Author: Barlis, Jeun Rei Benitez
• Format: text
• Language: English
• Published: Animo Repository 2022
• Subjects: Transportation and state—Philippines; Electric automobiles—Philippines; Mechanical Engineering
• Online Access: https://animorepository.dlsu.edu.ph/etdm_mecheng/12; https://animorepository.dlsu.edu.ph/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1012&context=etdm_mecheng
• Institution: De La Salle University

The jeepney transport sector is one of the main modes of transport in the Philippines. But even with the large share of commuters, the jeepney transport industry has been left out in terms of its technology. The majority of the jeepneys operating in Metro Manila are older than the maximum allowable age for PUVs and precede even the EURO 1 standards. Because of this, jeepneys largely contribute to emissions and congestion in the road of Metro Manila. Policies, such as PUVMP, have already been implemented by the government to reduce emissions and increase the safety of jeepneys operating on the roads while encouraging operators and cooperatives to purchase and update their jeepneys through subsidies, such as programs under EVIDA. However, even with these policies and subsidies, adoption of modern jeepneys is still low, especially on electric jeepneys, which would help to lower the emission of the jeepney transport sector but will come with higher investment costs. Additionally, the lack of modeling study on jeepney transport adoption further increases the problem as policymakers do not have the means to simulate and study the effects of the policies. Therefore, this study aims to design a model that will be able to simulate different policy plans to support the adoption of Electric Jeepneys. The electric jeepney adoption model is a complex problem that needs both qualitative and quantitative to be considered. Therefore, a hybrid ABSDM approach is used in this study. The hybrid approach has been able to simulate the various factors and events that affect electric jeepney adoption. The model also utilized the heterogeneous properties of ABM and the abstraction of SDM. The model has successfully simulated the buying process of the jeepney cooperatives and operators using ABM and has utilized an AHP-Utility Based choice model. The manufacturing sector and the policy and emission cost have successfully been simulated using SDM. The model has been developed with the help of the jeepney adoption framework developed by EVAP and with the help of the interview data with different cooperatives, manufacturers, importers, and transport experts. The hybrid ABSDM has successfully determined the effects of the different policy plans and approaches on the jeepney stock, policy cost, and emission cost. Through scenario analysis, different Fiscal, Non-Fiscal, and Demand policies are simulated and investigated in this study. The impact of each policy plan was estimated, and it was determined that certain policy plans resulted in increased adoption of electric jeepneys while minimizing the emission and policy costs. The Hybrid ABSDM has successfully achieved the goal of this study. The gap in modeling studies has been addressed, and the effects of policies on electric jeepney adoption have been determined. Possible policy roadmaps can be designed with the help of the results from the model. With the model serving as a benchmark, better models can be developed in the future with the help of more data and integration of different modeling approaches.