A dynamic Leontief model with stochastic extensions for sustainable jatropha curcas biofuel supply chain

• Main Authors: Enriquez, John Isaac G., Villagracia, Al Rey C., Tan, Raymond Girard R., Culaba, Alvin B.
• Format: text
• Published: Animo Repository 2015
• Subjects: Jatropha curcas; Energy crops; Petroleum Engineering
• Online Access: https://animorepository.dlsu.edu.ph/faculty_research/6876
• Institution: De La Salle University

Jatropha biofuel is an excellent candidate for an alternative renewable and clean energy source. However, an increasing number of countries and investors are losing interest in J. curcas mainly because of the challenges they encountered caused by ineffective organization and coordination of the entire supply chains. For this purpose, a time varying input-output model with stochastic extension had been presented which can be used to simulate the supply chain dynamics of J. curcas biofuel. The model incorporates various extensions to the basic Leontief input-output model such as non-square matrix requirement for the technology matrix, adapting behavior based on target and current production levels, a control matrix to intervene on undesirable dynamics, and a Gaussian stochastic parameter that simulates uncontrolled changes in the production capacity which may be brought up by natural calamities and market instabilities. Numerical simulations of two-sector case studies having behavioral matrix patterned after the broad interactions between various sectorial agents were able to replicate the general trends of J. curcas biodiesel supply chain. The coefficients of the control matrix used to eliminate oscillatory dynamics of the system made physical suggestions that are strikingly similar to the ones made by some researchers in the field. With the incorporation of stochastic extension, the model was able to make predictions about the relative extent on how different streams will be affected by sudden random changes that are brought into the system.