Who Changed their Minds about Erap? Hypothesis Tests based on Design-Consistent Estimates of an Ordered Probit Model of the Philippine President’s Ratings

• Main Authors: Alba, Michael M., Bigol, Geriz, Deacosta, Reina Filipina, Pulumbarit, Ria
• Format: text
• Published: Animo Repository 2000
• Subjects: Politics; Philippines; Ordered Probit Model; Politics and Social Change
• Online Access: https://animorepository.dlsu.edu.ph/res_aki/77; https://animorepository.dlsu.edu.ph/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1080&context=res_aki
• Institution: De La Salle University

Using data from the March and June 1999 surveys of the Social Weather Stations (SWS), we generate and analyze design-based estimates of the subpopulation means and standard deviations of President Estrada’s ratings and of his net satisfaction index over certain respondent characteristics. We also estimate the parameters of a design-consistent ordered probit model of the ratings and compare the coefficient estimates as well as the marginal effects on the ratings probabilities of the March and June regressors to identify the respondent attributes that contributed to the net decline in his popularity. We find that although the estimates of the population means of the president’s ratings and of the net satisfaction index were not statistically different between the two survey periods, by June 1999, residents of the Visayas as well as persons with some education had become disenchanted with the Estrada administration. Only for residents of Luzon outside the National Capital Region did the satisfaction ratings turn in favor of President Estrada.