Incidence and Seasonality of Kawasaki Disease in Children in the Philippines, and Its Association with Ambient Air Temperature

Background Despite an unknown cause, Kawasaki disease (KD) is currently the primary leading cause of acquired heart disease in developed countries in children and has been increasing in recent years. Research efforts have explored environmental factors related to KD, but they are still unclear espec...

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Main Authors: Celis-Seposo, Aden Kay, Madaniyazi, Lina, Seposo, Xerxes, Hashizume, Masahiro, Yoshida, Lay Myint, Toizumi, Michiko
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Published: Archīum Ateneo 2024
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Online Access:https://archium.ateneo.edu/asmph-pubs/155
https://archium.ateneo.edu/context/asmph-pubs/article/1159/viewcontent/fped_12_1358638.pdf
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spelling ph-ateneo-arc.asmph-pubs-11592024-07-08T00:37:06Z Incidence and Seasonality of Kawasaki Disease in Children in the Philippines, and Its Association with Ambient Air Temperature Celis-Seposo, Aden Kay Madaniyazi, Lina Seposo, Xerxes Hashizume, Masahiro Yoshida, Lay Myint Toizumi, Michiko Background Despite an unknown cause, Kawasaki disease (KD) is currently the primary leading cause of acquired heart disease in developed countries in children and has been increasing in recent years. Research efforts have explored environmental factors related to KD, but they are still unclear especially in the tropics. We aimed to describe the incidence of KD in children, assess its seasonality, and determine its association with ambient air temperature in the National Capital Region (NCR), Philippines from January 2009 to December 2019. Methods Monthly number of KD cases from the Philippine Pediatric Society (PPS) disease registry was collected to determine the incidence of KD. A generalized linear model (GLM) with quasi-Poisson regression was utilized to assess the seasonality of KD and determine its association with ambient air temperature after adjusting for the relevant confounders. Results The majority of KD cases (68.52%) occurred in children less than five years old, with incidence rates ranging from 14.98 to 23.20 cases per 100,000 population, and a male-to-female ratio of 1.43:1. Seasonal variation followed a unimodal shape with a rate ratio of 1.13 from the average, peaking in March and reaching the lowest in September. After adjusting for seasonality and long-term trend, every one-degree Celsius increase in the monthly mean temperature significantly increased the risk of developing KD by 8.28% (95% CI: 2.12%, 14.80%). Season-specific analysis revealed a positive association during the dry season (RR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.11), whereas no evidence of association was found during the wet season (RR: 1.10, 95% CI: 0.95, 1.27). Conclusion We have presented the incidence of KD in the Philippines which is relatively varied from its neighboring countries. The unimodal seasonality of KD and its linear association with temperature, independent of season and secular trend, especially during dry season, may provide insights into its etiology and may support enhanced KD detection efforts in the country. 2024-04-22T07:00:00Z text application/pdf https://archium.ateneo.edu/asmph-pubs/155 https://archium.ateneo.edu/context/asmph-pubs/article/1159/viewcontent/fped_12_1358638.pdf Ateneo School of Medicine and Public Health Publications Archīum Ateneo children’s environmental health environmental epidemiology Kawasaki disease Philippines seasonality temperature Cardiovascular Diseases Environmental Public Health Medicine and Health Sciences Pediatrics Public Health
institution Ateneo De Manila University
building Ateneo De Manila University Library
continent Asia
country Philippines
Philippines
content_provider Ateneo De Manila University Library
collection archium.Ateneo Institutional Repository
topic children’s environmental health
environmental epidemiology
Kawasaki disease
Philippines
seasonality
temperature
Cardiovascular Diseases
Environmental Public Health
Medicine and Health Sciences
Pediatrics
Public Health
spellingShingle children’s environmental health
environmental epidemiology
Kawasaki disease
Philippines
seasonality
temperature
Cardiovascular Diseases
Environmental Public Health
Medicine and Health Sciences
Pediatrics
Public Health
Celis-Seposo, Aden Kay
Madaniyazi, Lina
Seposo, Xerxes
Hashizume, Masahiro
Yoshida, Lay Myint
Toizumi, Michiko
Incidence and Seasonality of Kawasaki Disease in Children in the Philippines, and Its Association with Ambient Air Temperature
description Background Despite an unknown cause, Kawasaki disease (KD) is currently the primary leading cause of acquired heart disease in developed countries in children and has been increasing in recent years. Research efforts have explored environmental factors related to KD, but they are still unclear especially in the tropics. We aimed to describe the incidence of KD in children, assess its seasonality, and determine its association with ambient air temperature in the National Capital Region (NCR), Philippines from January 2009 to December 2019. Methods Monthly number of KD cases from the Philippine Pediatric Society (PPS) disease registry was collected to determine the incidence of KD. A generalized linear model (GLM) with quasi-Poisson regression was utilized to assess the seasonality of KD and determine its association with ambient air temperature after adjusting for the relevant confounders. Results The majority of KD cases (68.52%) occurred in children less than five years old, with incidence rates ranging from 14.98 to 23.20 cases per 100,000 population, and a male-to-female ratio of 1.43:1. Seasonal variation followed a unimodal shape with a rate ratio of 1.13 from the average, peaking in March and reaching the lowest in September. After adjusting for seasonality and long-term trend, every one-degree Celsius increase in the monthly mean temperature significantly increased the risk of developing KD by 8.28% (95% CI: 2.12%, 14.80%). Season-specific analysis revealed a positive association during the dry season (RR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.11), whereas no evidence of association was found during the wet season (RR: 1.10, 95% CI: 0.95, 1.27). Conclusion We have presented the incidence of KD in the Philippines which is relatively varied from its neighboring countries. The unimodal seasonality of KD and its linear association with temperature, independent of season and secular trend, especially during dry season, may provide insights into its etiology and may support enhanced KD detection efforts in the country.
format text
author Celis-Seposo, Aden Kay
Madaniyazi, Lina
Seposo, Xerxes
Hashizume, Masahiro
Yoshida, Lay Myint
Toizumi, Michiko
author_facet Celis-Seposo, Aden Kay
Madaniyazi, Lina
Seposo, Xerxes
Hashizume, Masahiro
Yoshida, Lay Myint
Toizumi, Michiko
author_sort Celis-Seposo, Aden Kay
title Incidence and Seasonality of Kawasaki Disease in Children in the Philippines, and Its Association with Ambient Air Temperature
title_short Incidence and Seasonality of Kawasaki Disease in Children in the Philippines, and Its Association with Ambient Air Temperature
title_full Incidence and Seasonality of Kawasaki Disease in Children in the Philippines, and Its Association with Ambient Air Temperature
title_fullStr Incidence and Seasonality of Kawasaki Disease in Children in the Philippines, and Its Association with Ambient Air Temperature
title_full_unstemmed Incidence and Seasonality of Kawasaki Disease in Children in the Philippines, and Its Association with Ambient Air Temperature
title_sort incidence and seasonality of kawasaki disease in children in the philippines, and its association with ambient air temperature
publisher Archīum Ateneo
publishDate 2024
url https://archium.ateneo.edu/asmph-pubs/155
https://archium.ateneo.edu/context/asmph-pubs/article/1159/viewcontent/fped_12_1358638.pdf
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