Estimating parameters for a dynamical dengue model using genetic algorithms

Dynamical models are a mathematical framework for understanding the spread of a disease using various epidemiological parameters. However, in data-scarce regions like the Philippines, local estimates of epidemiological parameters are difficult to obtain because methods to obtain these values are cos...

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Main Authors: Estuar, Ma. Regina Justina E, Uyheng, Joshua, Rosales, John Clifford, Espina, Kennedy E
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Published: Archīum Ateneo 2018
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Online Access:https://archium.ateneo.edu/discs-faculty-pubs/21
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/3205651.3205716
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spelling ph-ateneo-arc.discs-faculty-pubs-10202020-02-22T02:28:10Z Estimating parameters for a dynamical dengue model using genetic algorithms Estuar, Ma. Regina Justina E Uyheng, Joshua Rosales, John Clifford Espina, Kennedy E Dynamical models are a mathematical framework for understanding the spread of a disease using various epidemiological parameters. However, in data-scarce regions like the Philippines, local estimates of epidemiological parameters are difficult to obtain because methods to obtain these values are costly or inaccessible. In this paper, we employ genetic algorithms trained with novel fitness functions as a low-cost, data-driven method to estimate parameters for dengue incidence in the Western Visayas Region of the Philippines (2011-2016). Initial results show good ht between monthly historical values and model outputs using parameter estimates, with a best Pearson correlation of 0.86 and normalized error of 0.65 over the selected 72-month period. Furthermore, we demonstrate a quality assessment procedure for selecting biologically feasible and numerically stable parameter estimates. Implications of our findings are discussed in both epidemiological and computational contexts, highlighting their application in FASSSTER, an integrated syndromic surveillance system for infectious diseases in the Philippines. 2018-07-01T07:00:00Z text https://archium.ateneo.edu/discs-faculty-pubs/21 https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/3205651.3205716 Department of Information Systems & Computer Science Faculty Publications Archīum Ateneo Applied computing Mathematical analysis Health informatics Discrete mathematics Combinatorics Analysis Computer Sciences Databases and Information Systems Discrete Mathematics and Combinatorics Health Information Technology
institution Ateneo De Manila University
building Ateneo De Manila University Library
continent Asia
country Philippines
Philippines
content_provider Ateneo De Manila University Library
collection archium.Ateneo Institutional Repository
topic Applied computing
Mathematical analysis
Health informatics
Discrete mathematics
Combinatorics
Analysis
Computer Sciences
Databases and Information Systems
Discrete Mathematics and Combinatorics
Health Information Technology
spellingShingle Applied computing
Mathematical analysis
Health informatics
Discrete mathematics
Combinatorics
Analysis
Computer Sciences
Databases and Information Systems
Discrete Mathematics and Combinatorics
Health Information Technology
Estuar, Ma. Regina Justina E
Uyheng, Joshua
Rosales, John Clifford
Espina, Kennedy E
Estimating parameters for a dynamical dengue model using genetic algorithms
description Dynamical models are a mathematical framework for understanding the spread of a disease using various epidemiological parameters. However, in data-scarce regions like the Philippines, local estimates of epidemiological parameters are difficult to obtain because methods to obtain these values are costly or inaccessible. In this paper, we employ genetic algorithms trained with novel fitness functions as a low-cost, data-driven method to estimate parameters for dengue incidence in the Western Visayas Region of the Philippines (2011-2016). Initial results show good ht between monthly historical values and model outputs using parameter estimates, with a best Pearson correlation of 0.86 and normalized error of 0.65 over the selected 72-month period. Furthermore, we demonstrate a quality assessment procedure for selecting biologically feasible and numerically stable parameter estimates. Implications of our findings are discussed in both epidemiological and computational contexts, highlighting their application in FASSSTER, an integrated syndromic surveillance system for infectious diseases in the Philippines.
format text
author Estuar, Ma. Regina Justina E
Uyheng, Joshua
Rosales, John Clifford
Espina, Kennedy E
author_facet Estuar, Ma. Regina Justina E
Uyheng, Joshua
Rosales, John Clifford
Espina, Kennedy E
author_sort Estuar, Ma. Regina Justina E
title Estimating parameters for a dynamical dengue model using genetic algorithms
title_short Estimating parameters for a dynamical dengue model using genetic algorithms
title_full Estimating parameters for a dynamical dengue model using genetic algorithms
title_fullStr Estimating parameters for a dynamical dengue model using genetic algorithms
title_full_unstemmed Estimating parameters for a dynamical dengue model using genetic algorithms
title_sort estimating parameters for a dynamical dengue model using genetic algorithms
publisher Archīum Ateneo
publishDate 2018
url https://archium.ateneo.edu/discs-faculty-pubs/21
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/3205651.3205716
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