Policy-Driven Mathematical Modeling for COVID-19 Pandemic Response in the Philippines

Around the world; disease surveillance and mathematical modeling have been vital tools for government responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. In the face of a volatile crisis; modeling efforts have had to evolve over time in proposing policies for pandemic interventions. In this paper; we document how m...

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Main Authors: De Lara-Tuprio, Elvira P, Estadilla, Carlo Delfin S, Macalalag, Jay Michael R, Teng, Timothy Robin Y, Uyheng, Joshua, Espina, Kennedy E, Pulmano, Christian E, Estuar, Ma. Regina Justina E, Sarmiento, Raymond Francis R
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Published: Archīum Ateneo 2022
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Online Access:https://archium.ateneo.edu/mathematics-faculty-pubs/205
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9212903/
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Institution: Ateneo De Manila University
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spelling ph-ateneo-arc.mathematics-faculty-pubs-12042022-08-26T02:53:53Z Policy-Driven Mathematical Modeling for COVID-19 Pandemic Response in the Philippines De Lara-Tuprio, Elvira P Estadilla, Carlo Delfin S Macalalag, Jay Michael R Teng, Timothy Robin Y Uyheng, Joshua Espina, Kennedy E Pulmano, Christian E Estuar, Ma. Regina Justina E Sarmiento, Raymond Francis R Around the world; disease surveillance and mathematical modeling have been vital tools for government responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. In the face of a volatile crisis; modeling efforts have had to evolve over time in proposing policies for pandemic interventions. In this paper; we document how mathematical modeling contributed to guiding the trajectory of pandemic policies in the Philippines. We present the mathematical specifications of the FASSSTER COVID-19 compartmental model at the core of the FASSSTER platform; the scenario-based disease modeling and analytics toolkit used in the Philippines. We trace how evolving epidemiological analysis at the national; regional; and provincial levels guided government actions; and conversely; how emergent policy questions prompted subsequent model development and analysis. At various stages of the pandemic; simulated outputs of the FASSSTER model strongly correlated with empirically observed case trajectories (–; ). Model simulations were subsequently utilized to predict the outcomes of proposed interventions; including the calibration of community quarantine levels alongside improvements to healthcare system capacity. This study shows how the FASSSTER model enabled the implementation of a phased approach toward gradually expanding economic activity while limiting the spread of COVID-19. This work points to the importance of locally contextualized; flexible; and responsive mathematical modeling; as applied to pandemic intelligence and for data-driven policy-making in general. 2022-01-01T08:00:00Z text https://archium.ateneo.edu/mathematics-faculty-pubs/205 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9212903/ Mathematics Faculty Publications Archīum Ateneo COVID-19 pandemic Compartmental model Philippines Public health policy Mathematics Public Health
institution Ateneo De Manila University
building Ateneo De Manila University Library
continent Asia
country Philippines
Philippines
content_provider Ateneo De Manila University Library
collection archium.Ateneo Institutional Repository
topic COVID-19 pandemic
Compartmental model
Philippines
Public health policy
Mathematics
Public Health
spellingShingle COVID-19 pandemic
Compartmental model
Philippines
Public health policy
Mathematics
Public Health
De Lara-Tuprio, Elvira P
Estadilla, Carlo Delfin S
Macalalag, Jay Michael R
Teng, Timothy Robin Y
Uyheng, Joshua
Espina, Kennedy E
Pulmano, Christian E
Estuar, Ma. Regina Justina E
Sarmiento, Raymond Francis R
Policy-Driven Mathematical Modeling for COVID-19 Pandemic Response in the Philippines
description Around the world; disease surveillance and mathematical modeling have been vital tools for government responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. In the face of a volatile crisis; modeling efforts have had to evolve over time in proposing policies for pandemic interventions. In this paper; we document how mathematical modeling contributed to guiding the trajectory of pandemic policies in the Philippines. We present the mathematical specifications of the FASSSTER COVID-19 compartmental model at the core of the FASSSTER platform; the scenario-based disease modeling and analytics toolkit used in the Philippines. We trace how evolving epidemiological analysis at the national; regional; and provincial levels guided government actions; and conversely; how emergent policy questions prompted subsequent model development and analysis. At various stages of the pandemic; simulated outputs of the FASSSTER model strongly correlated with empirically observed case trajectories (–; ). Model simulations were subsequently utilized to predict the outcomes of proposed interventions; including the calibration of community quarantine levels alongside improvements to healthcare system capacity. This study shows how the FASSSTER model enabled the implementation of a phased approach toward gradually expanding economic activity while limiting the spread of COVID-19. This work points to the importance of locally contextualized; flexible; and responsive mathematical modeling; as applied to pandemic intelligence and for data-driven policy-making in general.
format text
author De Lara-Tuprio, Elvira P
Estadilla, Carlo Delfin S
Macalalag, Jay Michael R
Teng, Timothy Robin Y
Uyheng, Joshua
Espina, Kennedy E
Pulmano, Christian E
Estuar, Ma. Regina Justina E
Sarmiento, Raymond Francis R
author_facet De Lara-Tuprio, Elvira P
Estadilla, Carlo Delfin S
Macalalag, Jay Michael R
Teng, Timothy Robin Y
Uyheng, Joshua
Espina, Kennedy E
Pulmano, Christian E
Estuar, Ma. Regina Justina E
Sarmiento, Raymond Francis R
author_sort De Lara-Tuprio, Elvira P
title Policy-Driven Mathematical Modeling for COVID-19 Pandemic Response in the Philippines
title_short Policy-Driven Mathematical Modeling for COVID-19 Pandemic Response in the Philippines
title_full Policy-Driven Mathematical Modeling for COVID-19 Pandemic Response in the Philippines
title_fullStr Policy-Driven Mathematical Modeling for COVID-19 Pandemic Response in the Philippines
title_full_unstemmed Policy-Driven Mathematical Modeling for COVID-19 Pandemic Response in the Philippines
title_sort policy-driven mathematical modeling for covid-19 pandemic response in the philippines
publisher Archīum Ateneo
publishDate 2022
url https://archium.ateneo.edu/mathematics-faculty-pubs/205
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9212903/
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