Policy-Driven Mathematical Modeling for COVID-19 Pandemic Response in the Philippines
Around the world; disease surveillance and mathematical modeling have been vital tools for government responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. In the face of a volatile crisis; modeling efforts have had to evolve over time in proposing policies for pandemic interventions. In this paper; we document how m...
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2022
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ph-ateneo-arc.mathematics-faculty-pubs-12042022-08-26T02:53:53Z Policy-Driven Mathematical Modeling for COVID-19 Pandemic Response in the Philippines De Lara-Tuprio, Elvira P Estadilla, Carlo Delfin S Macalalag, Jay Michael R Teng, Timothy Robin Y Uyheng, Joshua Espina, Kennedy E Pulmano, Christian E Estuar, Ma. Regina Justina E Sarmiento, Raymond Francis R Around the world; disease surveillance and mathematical modeling have been vital tools for government responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. In the face of a volatile crisis; modeling efforts have had to evolve over time in proposing policies for pandemic interventions. In this paper; we document how mathematical modeling contributed to guiding the trajectory of pandemic policies in the Philippines. We present the mathematical specifications of the FASSSTER COVID-19 compartmental model at the core of the FASSSTER platform; the scenario-based disease modeling and analytics toolkit used in the Philippines. We trace how evolving epidemiological analysis at the national; regional; and provincial levels guided government actions; and conversely; how emergent policy questions prompted subsequent model development and analysis. At various stages of the pandemic; simulated outputs of the FASSSTER model strongly correlated with empirically observed case trajectories (–; ). Model simulations were subsequently utilized to predict the outcomes of proposed interventions; including the calibration of community quarantine levels alongside improvements to healthcare system capacity. This study shows how the FASSSTER model enabled the implementation of a phased approach toward gradually expanding economic activity while limiting the spread of COVID-19. This work points to the importance of locally contextualized; flexible; and responsive mathematical modeling; as applied to pandemic intelligence and for data-driven policy-making in general. 2022-01-01T08:00:00Z text https://archium.ateneo.edu/mathematics-faculty-pubs/205 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9212903/ Mathematics Faculty Publications Archīum Ateneo COVID-19 pandemic Compartmental model Philippines Public health policy Mathematics Public Health |
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COVID-19 pandemic Compartmental model Philippines Public health policy Mathematics Public Health |
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COVID-19 pandemic Compartmental model Philippines Public health policy Mathematics Public Health De Lara-Tuprio, Elvira P Estadilla, Carlo Delfin S Macalalag, Jay Michael R Teng, Timothy Robin Y Uyheng, Joshua Espina, Kennedy E Pulmano, Christian E Estuar, Ma. Regina Justina E Sarmiento, Raymond Francis R Policy-Driven Mathematical Modeling for COVID-19 Pandemic Response in the Philippines |
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Around the world; disease surveillance and mathematical modeling have been vital tools for government responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. In the face of a volatile crisis; modeling efforts have had to evolve over time in proposing policies for pandemic interventions. In this paper; we document how mathematical modeling contributed to guiding the trajectory of pandemic policies in the Philippines. We present the mathematical specifications of the FASSSTER COVID-19 compartmental model at the core of the FASSSTER platform; the scenario-based disease modeling and analytics toolkit used in the Philippines. We trace how evolving epidemiological analysis at the national; regional; and provincial levels guided government actions; and conversely; how emergent policy questions prompted subsequent model development and analysis. At various stages of the pandemic; simulated outputs of the FASSSTER model strongly correlated with empirically observed case trajectories (–; ). Model simulations were subsequently utilized to predict the outcomes of proposed interventions; including the calibration of community quarantine levels alongside improvements to healthcare system capacity. This study shows how the FASSSTER model enabled the implementation of a phased approach toward gradually expanding economic activity while limiting the spread of COVID-19. This work points to the importance of locally contextualized; flexible; and responsive mathematical modeling; as applied to pandemic intelligence and for data-driven policy-making in general. |
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De Lara-Tuprio, Elvira P Estadilla, Carlo Delfin S Macalalag, Jay Michael R Teng, Timothy Robin Y Uyheng, Joshua Espina, Kennedy E Pulmano, Christian E Estuar, Ma. Regina Justina E Sarmiento, Raymond Francis R |
author_facet |
De Lara-Tuprio, Elvira P Estadilla, Carlo Delfin S Macalalag, Jay Michael R Teng, Timothy Robin Y Uyheng, Joshua Espina, Kennedy E Pulmano, Christian E Estuar, Ma. Regina Justina E Sarmiento, Raymond Francis R |
author_sort |
De Lara-Tuprio, Elvira P |
title |
Policy-Driven Mathematical Modeling for COVID-19 Pandemic Response in the Philippines |
title_short |
Policy-Driven Mathematical Modeling for COVID-19 Pandemic Response in the Philippines |
title_full |
Policy-Driven Mathematical Modeling for COVID-19 Pandemic Response in the Philippines |
title_fullStr |
Policy-Driven Mathematical Modeling for COVID-19 Pandemic Response in the Philippines |
title_full_unstemmed |
Policy-Driven Mathematical Modeling for COVID-19 Pandemic Response in the Philippines |
title_sort |
policy-driven mathematical modeling for covid-19 pandemic response in the philippines |
publisher |
Archīum Ateneo |
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2022 |
url |
https://archium.ateneo.edu/mathematics-faculty-pubs/205 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9212903/ |
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