Policy-driven mathematical modeling for COVID-19 pandemic response in the Philippines

Around the world, disease surveillance and mathematical modeling have been vital tools for government responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. In the face of a volatile crisis, modeling efforts have had to evolve over time in proposing policies for pandemic interventions. In this paper, we document how m...

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Main Authors: De Lara-Tuprio, Elvira P, Estadilla, Carlo Delfin S, Macalalag, Jay Michael R, Teng, Timothy Robin Y, Uyheng, Joshua, Espina, Kennedy E, Pulmano, Christian, Estuar, Ma. Regina Justina, Sarmiento, Raymond Francis R
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Published: Archīum Ateneo 2022
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Online Access:https://archium.ateneo.edu/mathematics-faculty-pubs/214
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100599
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Institution: Ateneo De Manila University
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spelling ph-ateneo-arc.mathematics-faculty-pubs-12152022-11-22T08:20:18Z Policy-driven mathematical modeling for COVID-19 pandemic response in the Philippines De Lara-Tuprio, Elvira P Estadilla, Carlo Delfin S Macalalag, Jay Michael R Teng, Timothy Robin Y Uyheng, Joshua Espina, Kennedy E Pulmano, Christian Estuar, Ma. Regina Justina Sarmiento, Raymond Francis R Around the world, disease surveillance and mathematical modeling have been vital tools for government responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. In the face of a volatile crisis, modeling efforts have had to evolve over time in proposing policies for pandemic interventions. In this paper, we document how mathematical modeling contributed to guiding the trajectory of pandemic policies in the Philippines. We present the mathematical specifications of the FASSSTER COVID-19 compartmental model at the core of the FASSSTER platform, the scenario-based disease modeling and analytics toolkit used in the Philippines. We trace how evolving epidemiological analysis at the national, regional, and provincial levels guided government actions; and conversely, how emergent policy questions prompted subsequent model development and analysis. At various stages of the pandemic, simulated outputs of the FASSSTER model strongly correlated with empirically observed case trajectories ( = 94%–99%, < .001). Model simulations were subsequently utilized to predict the outcomes of proposed interventions, including the calibration of community quarantine levels alongside improvements to healthcare system capacity. This study shows how the FASSSTER model enabled the implementation of a phased approach toward gradually expanding economic activity while limiting the spread of COVID-19. This work points to the importance of locally contextualized, flexible, and responsive mathematical modeling, as applied to pandemic intelligence and for data-driven policy-making in general 2022-01-01T08:00:00Z text https://archium.ateneo.edu/mathematics-faculty-pubs/214 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100599 Mathematics Faculty Publications Archīum Ateneo COVID-19 pandemic Compartmental model Philippines Public health Policy Epidemiology Mathematics Physical Sciences and Mathematics Public Health
institution Ateneo De Manila University
building Ateneo De Manila University Library
continent Asia
country Philippines
Philippines
content_provider Ateneo De Manila University Library
collection archium.Ateneo Institutional Repository
topic COVID-19 pandemic
Compartmental model
Philippines
Public health
Policy
Epidemiology
Mathematics
Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Public Health
spellingShingle COVID-19 pandemic
Compartmental model
Philippines
Public health
Policy
Epidemiology
Mathematics
Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Public Health
De Lara-Tuprio, Elvira P
Estadilla, Carlo Delfin S
Macalalag, Jay Michael R
Teng, Timothy Robin Y
Uyheng, Joshua
Espina, Kennedy E
Pulmano, Christian
Estuar, Ma. Regina Justina
Sarmiento, Raymond Francis R
Policy-driven mathematical modeling for COVID-19 pandemic response in the Philippines
description Around the world, disease surveillance and mathematical modeling have been vital tools for government responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. In the face of a volatile crisis, modeling efforts have had to evolve over time in proposing policies for pandemic interventions. In this paper, we document how mathematical modeling contributed to guiding the trajectory of pandemic policies in the Philippines. We present the mathematical specifications of the FASSSTER COVID-19 compartmental model at the core of the FASSSTER platform, the scenario-based disease modeling and analytics toolkit used in the Philippines. We trace how evolving epidemiological analysis at the national, regional, and provincial levels guided government actions; and conversely, how emergent policy questions prompted subsequent model development and analysis. At various stages of the pandemic, simulated outputs of the FASSSTER model strongly correlated with empirically observed case trajectories ( = 94%–99%, < .001). Model simulations were subsequently utilized to predict the outcomes of proposed interventions, including the calibration of community quarantine levels alongside improvements to healthcare system capacity. This study shows how the FASSSTER model enabled the implementation of a phased approach toward gradually expanding economic activity while limiting the spread of COVID-19. This work points to the importance of locally contextualized, flexible, and responsive mathematical modeling, as applied to pandemic intelligence and for data-driven policy-making in general
format text
author De Lara-Tuprio, Elvira P
Estadilla, Carlo Delfin S
Macalalag, Jay Michael R
Teng, Timothy Robin Y
Uyheng, Joshua
Espina, Kennedy E
Pulmano, Christian
Estuar, Ma. Regina Justina
Sarmiento, Raymond Francis R
author_facet De Lara-Tuprio, Elvira P
Estadilla, Carlo Delfin S
Macalalag, Jay Michael R
Teng, Timothy Robin Y
Uyheng, Joshua
Espina, Kennedy E
Pulmano, Christian
Estuar, Ma. Regina Justina
Sarmiento, Raymond Francis R
author_sort De Lara-Tuprio, Elvira P
title Policy-driven mathematical modeling for COVID-19 pandemic response in the Philippines
title_short Policy-driven mathematical modeling for COVID-19 pandemic response in the Philippines
title_full Policy-driven mathematical modeling for COVID-19 pandemic response in the Philippines
title_fullStr Policy-driven mathematical modeling for COVID-19 pandemic response in the Philippines
title_full_unstemmed Policy-driven mathematical modeling for COVID-19 pandemic response in the Philippines
title_sort policy-driven mathematical modeling for covid-19 pandemic response in the philippines
publisher Archīum Ateneo
publishDate 2022
url https://archium.ateneo.edu/mathematics-faculty-pubs/214
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100599
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