Detecting Localized Systematic Fraud in the 2022 Philippine National Elections

• Main Authors: Asuncion, Aldrich Ellis C, Briones, Jeric C., Miro, Eden Delight, Yu, William Emmanuel S
• Format: text
• Published: Archīum Ateneo 2024
• Subjects: Public Policy; Statistical Models
• Online Access: https://archium.ateneo.edu/mathematics-faculty-pubs/276; https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0204898
• Institution: Ateneo De Manila University

Based on existing election fraud detection methods, we apply different parametric generative models to the May 2022 Philippine national elections. Our analysis shows that because of how these parametric models rely on vote concentrations, the models are inconclusive at a national level, and must be adapted to lower levels of aggregated election data. In particular, preliminary results suggest that further analysis of the elections should compare vote distributions in individual provinces and investigate election fraud at the local level.