Process-Based Analysis of the Impacts of Sea Surface Temperature on Climate in CORDEX-SEA Simulations

This paper investigates the process behind climate model biases, especially in rainfall, during the southwest (June to August; JJA) and northeast monsoon (December to February; DJF) seasons over the Philippines using the downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations of...

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Main Authors: Magnaye, Angela Monina T., Aragon, Larry Ger B., Dado, Julie Mae B., Cruz, Faye T., Olaguera, Lyndon Mark P., Narisma, Gemma T, Tangang, Fredolin, Juneng, Liew, Ngo-Duc, Thanh, Phan-Van, Tan, Santisirisomboon, Jerasorn, Singhruck, Patama, Gunawan, Dodo, Aldrian, Edvin, Sopaheluwakan, Ardhasena
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Published: Archīum Ateneo 2023
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Online Access:https://archium.ateneo.edu/physics-faculty-pubs/142
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06826-3
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spelling ph-ateneo-arc.physics-faculty-pubs-11412024-02-29T08:36:14Z Process-Based Analysis of the Impacts of Sea Surface Temperature on Climate in CORDEX-SEA Simulations Magnaye, Angela Monina T. Aragon, Larry Ger B. Dado, Julie Mae B. Cruz, Faye T. Olaguera, Lyndon Mark P. Narisma, Gemma T Tangang, Fredolin Juneng, Liew Ngo-Duc, Thanh Phan-Van, Tan Santisirisomboon, Jerasorn Singhruck, Patama Gunawan, Dodo Aldrian, Edvin Sopaheluwakan, Ardhasena This paper investigates the process behind climate model biases, especially in rainfall, during the southwest (June to August; JJA) and northeast monsoon (December to February; DJF) seasons over the Philippines using the downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations of the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling/Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-Southeast Asia (SEACLID/CORDEX-SEA). Biases in the surface and near-surface climate are assessed over land in eastern (EastPH) and western (WestPH) Philippines using observation and reanalysis datasets. Results show that models with well-represented sea surface temperature (SST) provided better added values after downscaling. Although the CMIP5-driven models tend to overestimate both surface energy and water partitioning, simulations with well-represented SST have better surface energy partitions. In contrast to the reference simulation driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis, the CMIP5-driven simulations tend to underestimate (overestimate) moisture flux convergence during the DJF (JJA) season, which might have contributed to the overall underestimation (overestimation) of rainfall in this season. Further investigation along a vertical transect shows the differences in governing mechanisms for each season. During DJF (JJA) season, the simulation with underestimated (overestimated) SST, near-surface air temperature, and mixing ratio results in underestimated (overestimated) rainfall over EastPH (WestPH). In addition, the CMIP5-driven models were found to overestimate low-level winds, which may have induced the deep convection regardless of season, suggesting the role of low-level winds in the convection scheme used in RegCM4 aside from topography and land cover. 2023-11-01T07:00:00Z text text/html https://archium.ateneo.edu/physics-faculty-pubs/142 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06826-3 Physics Faculty Publications Archīum Ateneo Climate variability CORDEX-SEA Regional climate modeling Sea surface temperature Climate Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology Physical Sciences and Mathematics
institution Ateneo De Manila University
building Ateneo De Manila University Library
continent Asia
country Philippines
Philippines
content_provider Ateneo De Manila University Library
collection archium.Ateneo Institutional Repository
topic Climate variability
CORDEX-SEA
Regional climate modeling
Sea surface temperature
Climate
Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Physical Sciences and Mathematics
spellingShingle Climate variability
CORDEX-SEA
Regional climate modeling
Sea surface temperature
Climate
Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Magnaye, Angela Monina T.
Aragon, Larry Ger B.
Dado, Julie Mae B.
Cruz, Faye T.
Olaguera, Lyndon Mark P.
Narisma, Gemma T
Tangang, Fredolin
Juneng, Liew
Ngo-Duc, Thanh
Phan-Van, Tan
Santisirisomboon, Jerasorn
Singhruck, Patama
Gunawan, Dodo
Aldrian, Edvin
Sopaheluwakan, Ardhasena
Process-Based Analysis of the Impacts of Sea Surface Temperature on Climate in CORDEX-SEA Simulations
description This paper investigates the process behind climate model biases, especially in rainfall, during the southwest (June to August; JJA) and northeast monsoon (December to February; DJF) seasons over the Philippines using the downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations of the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling/Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-Southeast Asia (SEACLID/CORDEX-SEA). Biases in the surface and near-surface climate are assessed over land in eastern (EastPH) and western (WestPH) Philippines using observation and reanalysis datasets. Results show that models with well-represented sea surface temperature (SST) provided better added values after downscaling. Although the CMIP5-driven models tend to overestimate both surface energy and water partitioning, simulations with well-represented SST have better surface energy partitions. In contrast to the reference simulation driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis, the CMIP5-driven simulations tend to underestimate (overestimate) moisture flux convergence during the DJF (JJA) season, which might have contributed to the overall underestimation (overestimation) of rainfall in this season. Further investigation along a vertical transect shows the differences in governing mechanisms for each season. During DJF (JJA) season, the simulation with underestimated (overestimated) SST, near-surface air temperature, and mixing ratio results in underestimated (overestimated) rainfall over EastPH (WestPH). In addition, the CMIP5-driven models were found to overestimate low-level winds, which may have induced the deep convection regardless of season, suggesting the role of low-level winds in the convection scheme used in RegCM4 aside from topography and land cover.
format text
author Magnaye, Angela Monina T.
Aragon, Larry Ger B.
Dado, Julie Mae B.
Cruz, Faye T.
Olaguera, Lyndon Mark P.
Narisma, Gemma T
Tangang, Fredolin
Juneng, Liew
Ngo-Duc, Thanh
Phan-Van, Tan
Santisirisomboon, Jerasorn
Singhruck, Patama
Gunawan, Dodo
Aldrian, Edvin
Sopaheluwakan, Ardhasena
author_facet Magnaye, Angela Monina T.
Aragon, Larry Ger B.
Dado, Julie Mae B.
Cruz, Faye T.
Olaguera, Lyndon Mark P.
Narisma, Gemma T
Tangang, Fredolin
Juneng, Liew
Ngo-Duc, Thanh
Phan-Van, Tan
Santisirisomboon, Jerasorn
Singhruck, Patama
Gunawan, Dodo
Aldrian, Edvin
Sopaheluwakan, Ardhasena
author_sort Magnaye, Angela Monina T.
title Process-Based Analysis of the Impacts of Sea Surface Temperature on Climate in CORDEX-SEA Simulations
title_short Process-Based Analysis of the Impacts of Sea Surface Temperature on Climate in CORDEX-SEA Simulations
title_full Process-Based Analysis of the Impacts of Sea Surface Temperature on Climate in CORDEX-SEA Simulations
title_fullStr Process-Based Analysis of the Impacts of Sea Surface Temperature on Climate in CORDEX-SEA Simulations
title_full_unstemmed Process-Based Analysis of the Impacts of Sea Surface Temperature on Climate in CORDEX-SEA Simulations
title_sort process-based analysis of the impacts of sea surface temperature on climate in cordex-sea simulations
publisher Archīum Ateneo
publishDate 2023
url https://archium.ateneo.edu/physics-faculty-pubs/142
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06826-3
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