Effect of variations in rainfall intensity on slope stability in Singapore
Numerous scientific evidence has given credence to the true existence and deleterious impacts of climate change. One aspect of climate change is the variations in rainfall patterns, which affect the flux boundary condition across ground surface. A possible disastrous consequence of this change is th...
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sg-ntu-dr.10356-1068842019-12-06T22:20:17Z Effect of variations in rainfall intensity on slope stability in Singapore Kristo, Christofer Rahardjo, Harianto Satyanaga, Alfrendo Rainfall Climate Change DRNTU::Engineering::Civil engineering Numerous scientific evidence has given credence to the true existence and deleterious impacts of climate change. One aspect of climate change is the variations in rainfall patterns, which affect the flux boundary condition across ground surface. A possible disastrous consequence of this change is the occurrence of rainfall-induced slope failures. This paper aims to investigate the variations in rainfall patterns in Singapore and its effect on slope stability. Singapore's historical rainfall data from Seletar and Paya Lebar weather stations for the period of 1985–2009 were obtained and analysed by duration using linear regression. A general increasing trend was observed in both weather stations, with a possible shift to longer duration rainfall events, despite being statistically insignificant according to the Mann-Kendall test. Using the derived trends, projected rainfall intensities in 2050 and 2100 were used in the seepage and slope stability analyses performed on a typical residual soil slope in Singapore. A significant reduction in factor of safety was observed in the next 50 years, with only a marginal decrease in factor of safety in the subsequent 50 years. This indicates a possible detrimental effect of variations in rainfall patterns on slope stability in Singapore, especially in the next 50 years. The statistical analyses on rainfall data from Seletar and Paya Lebar weather stations for the period of 1985–2009 indicated that rainfall intensity tend to increase over the years, with a possible shift to longer duration rainfall events in the future. The stability analyses showed a significant decrease in factor of safety from 2003 to 2050 due to increase in rainfall intensity, suggesting that a climate change might have existed beyond 2009 with possibly detrimental effects to slope stability. Published version 2019-06-27T06:31:22Z 2019-12-06T22:20:17Z 2019-06-27T06:31:22Z 2019-12-06T22:20:17Z 2017 Journal Article Kristo, C., Rahardjo, H., & Satyanaga, A. (2017). Effect of variations in rainfall intensity on slope stability in Singapore. International Soil and Water Conservation Research, 5(4), 258-264. doi:10.1016/j.iswcr.2017.07.001 2095-6339 https://hdl.handle.net/10356/106884 http://hdl.handle.net/10220/48984 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.iswcr.2017.07.001 en International Soil and Water Conservation Research © 2017 International Research and Training Center on Erosion and Sedimentation and China Water and Power Press. Production and Hosting by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). 7 p. application/pdf |
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Rainfall Climate Change DRNTU::Engineering::Civil engineering Kristo, Christofer Rahardjo, Harianto Satyanaga, Alfrendo Effect of variations in rainfall intensity on slope stability in Singapore |
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Numerous scientific evidence has given credence to the true existence and deleterious impacts of climate change. One aspect of climate change is the variations in rainfall patterns, which affect the flux boundary condition across ground surface. A possible disastrous consequence of this change is the occurrence of rainfall-induced slope failures. This paper aims to investigate the variations in rainfall patterns in Singapore and its effect on slope stability. Singapore's historical rainfall data from Seletar and Paya Lebar weather stations for the period of 1985–2009 were obtained and analysed by duration using linear regression. A general increasing trend was observed in both weather stations, with a possible shift to longer duration rainfall events, despite being statistically insignificant according to the Mann-Kendall test. Using the derived trends, projected rainfall intensities in 2050 and 2100 were used in the seepage and slope stability analyses performed on a typical residual soil slope in Singapore. A significant reduction in factor of safety was observed in the next 50 years, with only a marginal decrease in factor of safety in the subsequent 50 years. This indicates a possible detrimental effect of variations in rainfall patterns on slope stability in Singapore, especially in the next 50 years. The statistical analyses on rainfall data from Seletar and Paya Lebar weather stations for the period of 1985–2009 indicated that rainfall intensity tend to increase over the years, with a possible shift to longer duration rainfall events in the future. The stability analyses showed a significant decrease in factor of safety from 2003 to 2050 due to increase in rainfall intensity, suggesting that a climate change might have existed beyond 2009 with possibly detrimental effects to slope stability. |
format |
Article |
author |
Kristo, Christofer Rahardjo, Harianto Satyanaga, Alfrendo |
author_facet |
Kristo, Christofer Rahardjo, Harianto Satyanaga, Alfrendo |
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Kristo, Christofer |
title |
Effect of variations in rainfall intensity on slope stability in Singapore |
title_short |
Effect of variations in rainfall intensity on slope stability in Singapore |
title_full |
Effect of variations in rainfall intensity on slope stability in Singapore |
title_fullStr |
Effect of variations in rainfall intensity on slope stability in Singapore |
title_full_unstemmed |
Effect of variations in rainfall intensity on slope stability in Singapore |
title_sort |
effect of variations in rainfall intensity on slope stability in singapore |
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2019 |
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https://hdl.handle.net/10356/106884 http://hdl.handle.net/10220/48984 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.iswcr.2017.07.001 |
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