A decision-theoretic approach on commuting mode choice : an experiential theoretical study

• Main Authors: Tan, Clement Jun Wen, Goh, Xue Rui, Leong, Wan Yi
• Other Authors: Jonathan Tan
• Format: Final Year Project
• Language: English
• Published: Nanyang Technological University 2020
• Subjects: Social sciences::Economic theory
• Online Access: https://hdl.handle.net/10356/139304
• Institution: Nanyang Technological University

With the research efforts on artificial intelligence technology and the presence of autonomous vehicle (AV) in our society today, there have been discussions on the incorporation of AV as a mode of transport in our daily lives. Therefore, this paper analyses a subset of these behavioural biases, namely driver overconfidence, risk preference and technology acceptance on and their effect on one’s commuting mode choice using a decision-theoretic approach and a binary logit regression model. The 2 main research questions of the paper are as follow: (1) Understand the fundamental drivers of decision-making in commuting mode choice given the option of fully autonomous option alongside non-autonomous vehicles options. (2) Elicit the ranked preference of commuters’ transportation mode choices based on the non- autonomous and autonomous transportation landscape. The above questions have been addressed in the paper through the conduct of an experiment to study the individual’s probability of choosing between “Self”, AV and non-AV options. Elicitation of individual’s preferences were obtained through the tabulation of the probability of choosing an option between “Self”, AV and non-AV. With the use of an experimental study, it serves to incorporate choice theory into real-life scenario of making transport mode choice with the interactions with individual’s behavioural factors. Overall, in regression 1, the dummy treatment variable (AV) and the constant were both negative and significant, which illustrates that given a choice between “Self” and NAV, individuals would prefer NAV and given a choice between “Self” and AV, individuals would prefer AV. Following, in regression 2, the coefficient of the constant was negative and significant which showed that given a choice between NAV and AV, individuals would prefer the option of AV. Furthermore, our findings revealed the hierarchical preference of commuting mode choice being AV>NAV>Self. This study provides valuable insight into the type of information that policymakers and companies should emphasise on when implementing AV as a transport mode choice.