Modelling and simulation of dengue fever spread
Being a country of a tropical climate, Singapore provides an optimal environment for Aedes mosquitoes to thrive, making Dengue endemic and persistent locally. This project presents the study and application of simulating and modelling dengue disease in Singapore by examining the Susceptible-Infec...
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| Format: | Final Year Project |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nanyang Technological University
2021
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| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10356/148015 |
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| Institution: | Nanyang Technological University |
| Language: | English |
| Summary: | Being a country of a tropical climate, Singapore provides an optimal environment for
Aedes mosquitoes to thrive, making Dengue endemic and persistent locally. This
project presents the study and application of simulating and modelling dengue disease
in Singapore by examining the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model in the
DengueME framework. The determining parameter, that is the infection rate β from
the SIR model was estimated and then used for prediction to analyse the dengue
situation of the year. The Least Square Logarithmic Regression model was performed
with the estimated β values to predict the possible number of weekly dengue incidence
cases for the subsequent month. The results showed that modelling dengue disease is
promising in observing the effectiveness of prevention and control measures, even
with a simple model. This serves to prove that mathematical models have huge
potential in aiding health policymakers to come up with suitable mitigation measures
for dengue spread and extend the use of models to other diseases in Singapore. |
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