Evaluating and optimising healthcare response to volcanic disaster through agent-based modelling

• Main Author: Goh, Yun Si
• Other Authors: Susanna Jenkins
• Format: Final Year Project
• Language: English
• Published: Nanyang Technological University 2021
• Subjects: Science::Geology::Volcanoes and earthquakes
• Online Access: https://hdl.handle.net/10356/148280
• Institution: Nanyang Technological University

Healthcare response plays a crucial role in protecting human lives during volcanic disasters. Unfortunately, it is often plagued with challenges during disasters. To overcome these challenges, casualty treatment models can be used to evaluate and optimise healthcare response to volcanic disasters. In previous studies, agent-based simulation is one of the modelling approaches used for casualty treatment models due to its ability to model the interactions between casualties, healthcare responders, healthcare facilities, and transport networks. However, previous studies lack coverage for alternative volcanic disaster and healthcare response scenarios, and consideration for different performance indicators. In this study, an agent-based casualty treatment model has been used to simulate various volcanic disaster and healthcare response scenarios. The study site is in Guadeloupe, in the Caribbean, where around 260,000 people live within 30 km of volcano La Soufrière. A base scenario was first simulated based on healthcare response data, and expert opinion from doctors familiar with volcanic crises and with the Guadeloupe healthcare system. Alternative scenarios were also simulated by varying the base scenario inputs. Healthcare response was then evaluated and optimised by examining the mortality rate, response time, and resource utilisation for each scenario. A sensitivity analysis was also conducted so that different aspects of healthcare response can be prioritised for optimisation. Results show that with the current Guadeloupe healthcare system, 57 percent of the casualties who are moderately injured are expected to die within five days after a volcanic eruption ends. This percentage is likely to increase with the number of exposed populations, and decrease with the speed, number, and capacity of ambulances, and the number of beds available in hospitals. Currently, the Guadeloupe healthcare response seems to be most lacking in its ability to rescue casualties due to inefficient ambulance transport. The treatment of casualties may also be inefficient due to a lack of burn beds in hospital. In addition, capacities at field hospitals (PMAs) may be insufficient in the first few hours of a volcanic disaster. To optimise healthcare response, ambulance transport should be prioritised first, followed by the number of burn beds, and PMA capacities in the first few hours after an eruption. The results from this study provide valuable information that help emergency planners prepare for future disasters. Although this study used Guadeloupe as a case study, the methods and model proposed here can be adapted for other volcanic areas beyond Guadeloupe.