The determinants of panic buying during a public health crisis : an application of the health belief model, perceived scarcity, and anticipated regret theories

• Main Author: Chua, Grace Chui Ling
• Other Authors: Yuen Kum Fai
• Format: Final Year Project
• Language: English
• Published: Nanyang Technological University 2021
• Subjects: Engineering::Maritime studies
• Online Access: https://hdl.handle.net/10356/150439
• Institution: Nanyang Technological University

The COVID-19 pandemic has seen an unmatched level of panic buying globally, a type of herd behaviour whereby consumers buy an uncommonly huge amount of products because of a perception of scarcity. This creates huge supply chain disruptions at the international level because the excessive buying by some consumers is unable to be met by the limited production capacity due to COVID-19 safety work measure restrictions. This leads to shortages and gaps in retail stores’ replenishment cycles. Drawing on the health belief model, perceived scarcity, and anticipated regret theories, this paper formulated a theoretical model that linked the determinants of panic buying and analysed their interrelationships. Subsequently, data were collated from 508 consumers through an online survey questionnaire in Singapore that was conducted during the early stage of the pandemic, before the onset of the circuit breaker in April 2020. Next, an analysis of the results was done through structural equation modelling. It showed that the effect of the health belief model dimensions (i.e. perceived susceptibility, perceived severity, outcome expectation, cues to action, and self-efficacy) on panic buying is partially mediated by the consumers’ perceived scarcity of products. Furthermore, the effect of perceived scarcity is partially mediated by consumers’ anticipation of regret. This paper differentiates from existing panic buying literature as it explains the panic buying behaviour through a theory-driven approach. It employs three distinct theories based on psychological, decision making, and abundance-scarcity research fields. Additionally, the theories are synthesised into a coherent model to account for the consumer’s cognition process that leads to panic buying. Overall, this paper expands on the current theoretical understanding of panic buying behaviour, giving insights into the possible measures and solutions that policymakers and relevant stakeholders can uptake to manage panic buying.