二胎还是三胎？：中国独生子女的生育意愿研究 = Second or third child? ：A study on China only child generation's childbearing intentions

• Main Author: 鄧凱恩 Tang, Karen Kai‘En
• Other Authors: Fang Xiaoping
• Format: Final Year Project
• Language: Chinese
• Published: Nanyang Technological University 2021
• Subjects: Humanities::Language::Chinese; Social sciences::Sociology
• Online Access: https://hdl.handle.net/10356/152874
• Institution: Nanyang Technological University

1980年代推出的独生子女政策是中国人口政策重要的转折点，这项政策不但直接影响人口结构，同时也间接影响这40年的社会环境以及人们的生育观念。随着中国的经济快速发展，中国面临着与其他发达和发展中国家的相同问题——人口老龄化。人口红利是中国经济发展当中的一个重要因素，人口老龄化意味着中国正在逐渐失去人口红利的优势。在过去的10年，中国政府力挽狂澜相继全面开放二胎和三胎，一些地方政府同时也推出政策鼓励生育。与其他国家相同，鼓励生育政策的成效有限并没有达到预期。不愿意多生是社会大环境和个人观念改变的结果。在一百年之内中国人从“多子多福”的观念变成不愿意生孩子甚至不愿意结婚，这个观念的改变不可逆也是鼓励生育的最大阻力。本文将从年轻夫妻在家庭计划中的考虑因素出发，探讨社会环境如何影响生育决定，以及中国政府如何对症下药推出鼓励生育措施。 关键词：人口政策 开放三胎 低生育率 生育意愿 One-child policy was introduced in the 1980s, it is an important turning point in China's population policy history. This policy not only directly affected the demographic structure but also indirectly affected society and people's perceptions of having children for the past 40 years. Along with the rapid economic development, China is now faced with an aging population, which is a common problem among many developed and developing countries. Demographic dividend is an important factor for China's economic success, aging population would mean that China is gradually losing the advantage of the demographic dividend. In the past 10 years, the Chinese government has been trying to turn the situation around by allowing families to have second and third children. Some local governments have also introduced policies to encourage childbirth. Similar to other countries, the effects of pro-fertility policies are not ideal. As a result of changes in societal norms and personal perceptions, young couples are unwilling to have more children. Within a hundred years, the value of Chinese people has changed from“more children, more blessings” to unwilling to have children or even marry. The irreversible mindset shift is also the biggest obstacle to encourage childbirth. This paper aims to explore how the social environment affects young couples’ family planning decisions and the measures the Chinese government is introducing to encourage birth rates. Keywords: Population Policy, Three Children Policy, Low Fertility Rate，Childbearing Intentions