Nature-based solutions for flood risk reduction : a probabilistic modeling framework
Flooding is the most frequent and damaging natural hazard globally. While nature-based solutions can reduce flood risk, they are not part of mainstream risk management. We develop a probabilistic risk analysis framework to quantify these benefits that (1) accounts for frequent small events and rarer...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2022
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10356/155408 |
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| Institution: | Nanyang Technological University |
| Language: | English |
| Summary: | Flooding is the most frequent and damaging natural hazard globally. While nature-based solutions can reduce flood risk, they are not part of mainstream risk management. We develop a probabilistic risk analysis framework to quantify these benefits that (1) accounts for frequent small events and rarer large events, (2) can be applied to large basins and data-scarce contexts, and (3) quantifies economic benefits and reduction in people affected. Measuring benefits in terms of avoided losses enables the integration of nature-based solutions in standard cost-benefit analysis of protective infrastructure. Results for the Chindwin River basin in Myanmar highlight the potential consequences of deforestation on long-term flood risk. We find that loss reduction is driven by small but frequent storms, suggesting that current practice relying on large storms may underestimate the benefits of nature-based solutions. By providing average annual losses, the framework helps mainstream nature-based solutions in infrastructure planning or insurance practice. |
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