Strategic ambiguity and the Trumpian approach to China–Taiwan relations

The notion of strategic ambiguity has long guided the United States’ engagement in cross-strait relations, requiring that Washington is intentionally unclear about whether and how it would intervene in a China–Taiwan conflict in order to preserve a balance of assurance and deterrence for both sides....

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Main Authors: Hoo, Tiang Boon, Sworn, Hannah Elyse
Other Authors: S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: 2022
Subjects:
Online Access:https://hdl.handle.net/10356/155425
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Institution: Nanyang Technological University
Language: English
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spelling sg-ntu-dr.10356-1554252022-02-24T00:36:57Z Strategic ambiguity and the Trumpian approach to China–Taiwan relations Hoo, Tiang Boon Sworn, Hannah Elyse S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies Social sciences::Political science::International relations US-China Relations Taiwan Strategic Ambiguity Donald Trump The notion of strategic ambiguity has long guided the United States’ engagement in cross-strait relations, requiring that Washington is intentionally unclear about whether and how it would intervene in a China–Taiwan conflict in order to preserve a balance of assurance and deterrence for both sides. This article unpacks the US approach to strategic ambiguity under Trump. Adopting a neo-classical realist perspective, it argues that domestic and individual level drivers—in particular, US populism, Congress and the foreign policy establishment, and Trump's transactional and personalized approach to foreign policy—have interacted with the shifting US–China balance of power to produce a different mode of American strategic ambiguity in the Taiwan Strait. A common view is that as a function of the growing US–China power competition, the US has largely leaned towards Taiwan in recent years. Our analysis revises this assessment by revealing a form of strategic ambiguity under Trump that, despite appearing to upset the balance of ambiguity in favour of Taiwan—paradoxically and probably unintentionally—maintains assurances and warnings for both China and Taiwan. Yet, while Trump has arguably preserved the overall balance of strategic ambiguity, he has introduced greater volatility into cross-strait relations. 2022-02-24T00:36:56Z 2022-02-24T00:36:56Z 2020 Journal Article Hoo, T. B. & Sworn, H. E. (2020). Strategic ambiguity and the Trumpian approach to China–Taiwan relations. International Affairs, 96(6), 1487-1508. https://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiaa160 0020-5850 https://hdl.handle.net/10356/155425 10.1093/ia/iiaa160 6 96 1487 1508 en International Affairs © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Royal Institute of International Affairs. All rights reserved.
institution Nanyang Technological University
building NTU Library
continent Asia
country Singapore
Singapore
content_provider NTU Library
collection DR-NTU
language English
topic Social sciences::Political science::International relations
US-China Relations
Taiwan
Strategic Ambiguity
Donald Trump
spellingShingle Social sciences::Political science::International relations
US-China Relations
Taiwan
Strategic Ambiguity
Donald Trump
Hoo, Tiang Boon
Sworn, Hannah Elyse
Strategic ambiguity and the Trumpian approach to China–Taiwan relations
description The notion of strategic ambiguity has long guided the United States’ engagement in cross-strait relations, requiring that Washington is intentionally unclear about whether and how it would intervene in a China–Taiwan conflict in order to preserve a balance of assurance and deterrence for both sides. This article unpacks the US approach to strategic ambiguity under Trump. Adopting a neo-classical realist perspective, it argues that domestic and individual level drivers—in particular, US populism, Congress and the foreign policy establishment, and Trump's transactional and personalized approach to foreign policy—have interacted with the shifting US–China balance of power to produce a different mode of American strategic ambiguity in the Taiwan Strait. A common view is that as a function of the growing US–China power competition, the US has largely leaned towards Taiwan in recent years. Our analysis revises this assessment by revealing a form of strategic ambiguity under Trump that, despite appearing to upset the balance of ambiguity in favour of Taiwan—paradoxically and probably unintentionally—maintains assurances and warnings for both China and Taiwan. Yet, while Trump has arguably preserved the overall balance of strategic ambiguity, he has introduced greater volatility into cross-strait relations.
author2 S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
author_facet S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Hoo, Tiang Boon
Sworn, Hannah Elyse
format Article
author Hoo, Tiang Boon
Sworn, Hannah Elyse
author_sort Hoo, Tiang Boon
title Strategic ambiguity and the Trumpian approach to China–Taiwan relations
title_short Strategic ambiguity and the Trumpian approach to China–Taiwan relations
title_full Strategic ambiguity and the Trumpian approach to China–Taiwan relations
title_fullStr Strategic ambiguity and the Trumpian approach to China–Taiwan relations
title_full_unstemmed Strategic ambiguity and the Trumpian approach to China–Taiwan relations
title_sort strategic ambiguity and the trumpian approach to china–taiwan relations
publishDate 2022
url https://hdl.handle.net/10356/155425
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