Correlation-oriented complex system structural risk assessment using Copula and belief rule base

Structural risk assessment is very important for maintaining the safe operations of many complex systems. However, there are two major requirements that still need to be addressed, namely the correlation among multiple factors and high interpretability to produce a trustworthy result. For the first...

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Main Authors: Chang, Leilei, Zhang, Limao, Xu, Xiaojian
Other Authors: School of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: 2022
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Online Access:https://hdl.handle.net/10356/159507
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Institution: Nanyang Technological University
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spelling sg-ntu-dr.10356-1595072022-06-24T06:11:34Z Correlation-oriented complex system structural risk assessment using Copula and belief rule base Chang, Leilei Zhang, Limao Xu, Xiaojian School of Civil and Environmental Engineering Engineering::Civil engineering Copula Belief Rule Base (BRB) Structural risk assessment is very important for maintaining the safe operations of many complex systems. However, there are two major requirements that still need to be addressed, namely the correlation among multiple factors and high interpretability to produce a trustworthy result. For the first challenge on correlation, the Copula model is applied to quantitatively measure the correlation among the data gathered from multiple sources. For the second challenge on interpretability, the Belief Rule Base (BRB) model is applied since it is essentially a white-box approach that can provide good interpretability by its transparent inferencing and decision-making process. With this, a novel approach is proposed by combining the Copula model and BRB, namely Copula-BRB. Moreover, two frameworks are separately designed as well. The first is a knowledge-driven inferencing framework when experts’ knowledge is available but with limited data. The second is a data-driven optimization framework when there is a large quantity of data. Correspondingly, a numerical case with only limited data and another practical case with 1000 sets of data are studied to explain and validate the two frameworks of the Copula-BRB approach, respectively. The numerical case is mainly used to explain the knowledge-driven Copula-BRB inferencing framework, and the practical case is conducted in a comparative fashion where three Copula functions are used, namely Clayton, Frank, and Gumbel, and the results are compared with the Support Vector Machine (SVM) and conventional BRB (without consideration of the attribute correlation). The results of the two case studies show that, by using the Copula-BRB which incorporates the attribute correlation into the conventional BRB, superior performance has been achieved in comparison with SVM and BRB. A detailed exploration of how this superior performance concerning outputs in intervals has been conducted as well. Ministry of Education (MOE) Nanyang Technological University The Start-Up Grant at Nanyang Technological University, Singapore (No. 04INS000423C120), the Ministry of Education Grants, Singapore (No. 04MNP002126C120; No. 04MNP000279C120), and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 71601180 and 61903108) are acknowledged for their financial support of this research. This work was also supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China under Grant 2017YFB120700, and the BNRist Program under Grants BNR2019TD01009. 2022-06-24T06:11:34Z 2022-06-24T06:11:34Z 2021 Journal Article Chang, L., Zhang, L. & Xu, X. (2021). Correlation-oriented complex system structural risk assessment using Copula and belief rule base. Information Sciences, 564, 220-236. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ins.2021.02.076 0020-0255 https://hdl.handle.net/10356/159507 10.1016/j.ins.2021.02.076 2-s2.0-85102586899 564 220 236 en 04INS000423C120 04MNP002126C120 04MNP000279C120 Information Sciences © 2021 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
institution Nanyang Technological University
building NTU Library
continent Asia
country Singapore
Singapore
content_provider NTU Library
collection DR-NTU
language English
topic Engineering::Civil engineering
Copula
Belief Rule Base (BRB)
spellingShingle Engineering::Civil engineering
Copula
Belief Rule Base (BRB)
Chang, Leilei
Zhang, Limao
Xu, Xiaojian
Correlation-oriented complex system structural risk assessment using Copula and belief rule base
description Structural risk assessment is very important for maintaining the safe operations of many complex systems. However, there are two major requirements that still need to be addressed, namely the correlation among multiple factors and high interpretability to produce a trustworthy result. For the first challenge on correlation, the Copula model is applied to quantitatively measure the correlation among the data gathered from multiple sources. For the second challenge on interpretability, the Belief Rule Base (BRB) model is applied since it is essentially a white-box approach that can provide good interpretability by its transparent inferencing and decision-making process. With this, a novel approach is proposed by combining the Copula model and BRB, namely Copula-BRB. Moreover, two frameworks are separately designed as well. The first is a knowledge-driven inferencing framework when experts’ knowledge is available but with limited data. The second is a data-driven optimization framework when there is a large quantity of data. Correspondingly, a numerical case with only limited data and another practical case with 1000 sets of data are studied to explain and validate the two frameworks of the Copula-BRB approach, respectively. The numerical case is mainly used to explain the knowledge-driven Copula-BRB inferencing framework, and the practical case is conducted in a comparative fashion where three Copula functions are used, namely Clayton, Frank, and Gumbel, and the results are compared with the Support Vector Machine (SVM) and conventional BRB (without consideration of the attribute correlation). The results of the two case studies show that, by using the Copula-BRB which incorporates the attribute correlation into the conventional BRB, superior performance has been achieved in comparison with SVM and BRB. A detailed exploration of how this superior performance concerning outputs in intervals has been conducted as well.
author2 School of Civil and Environmental Engineering
author_facet School of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Chang, Leilei
Zhang, Limao
Xu, Xiaojian
format Article
author Chang, Leilei
Zhang, Limao
Xu, Xiaojian
author_sort Chang, Leilei
title Correlation-oriented complex system structural risk assessment using Copula and belief rule base
title_short Correlation-oriented complex system structural risk assessment using Copula and belief rule base
title_full Correlation-oriented complex system structural risk assessment using Copula and belief rule base
title_fullStr Correlation-oriented complex system structural risk assessment using Copula and belief rule base
title_full_unstemmed Correlation-oriented complex system structural risk assessment using Copula and belief rule base
title_sort correlation-oriented complex system structural risk assessment using copula and belief rule base
publishDate 2022
url https://hdl.handle.net/10356/159507
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