Characteristics and trend of distribution of rainfall in Singapore

• Main Author: Lin, Peter Jiaming.
• Other Authors: Tan Soon Keat
• Format: Final Year Project
• Language: English
• Published: 2009
• Subjects: DRNTU::Engineering::Civil engineering::Water resources
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/10356/15985
• Institution: Nanyang Technological University

The objectives of this study were to analyze the characteristic and the trend distribution of rainfall in Singapore and the possible implication for its water resources. There are many approaches to detect trends and in our present study, we use Time Series and Statistical Analysis to determine whether there is a significant trend. Firstly, an exploratory data analysis needs to be done to identify the rainfall pattern changes. Fifteen graphs were plotted: The graphs of Average, Maximum and Minimum Annual rainfall; Summation, Maximum and Minimum of Monsoon Changeover Periods (April and October period); Summation, Maximum and Minimum of Northeast Monsoon (November to March); and Summation, Maximum and Minimum of Southwest Monsoon (May to September). After that, trend in rainfall changes is detected for further analysis. Secondly, a Time Series analysis was done to determine a more distinct analysis, the time intervals have to split into 3 parts (1875 – 1960, 1961 – 1988 and 1989 – 2008) as there will be insignificant trend in this interval. After that, the trend was removed; follow by cyclical movements before a hypothesis test is done. Thirdly, a confidence interval test (student – t) was conducted to find out the range in which the true parameters will lie and also to obtain an expected increasing trend. Finally, in our research, the impact in which the increasing trend of rainfall will bring on the water availability in Singapore will be discussed. Furthermore, recommendations are made to enhance the statistical analysis method and also broaden our study of the rainfall distribution