Multi-meteorological-factor-based graph modeling for photovoltaic power forecasting

• Main Authors: Cheng, Lilin, Zang, Haixiang, Ding, Tao, Wei, Zhinong, Sun, Guoqiang
• Other Authors: School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: 2022
• Subjects: Engineering::Electrical and electronic engineering; Predictive Models; Forecasting
• Online Access: https://hdl.handle.net/10356/160070
• Institution: Nanyang Technological University

Solar energy is a strongly intermittent renewable energy source, which is affected by varied meteorological conditions, and thus produces arbitrary power outputs in photovoltaic (PV) power generation. Complex weather variations make it challenging to develop an efficient PV power forecasting method. In this study, a graph modeling method is proposed for short-term PV power prediction. Unlike many conventional machine-learning models, the proposed model is capable of evaluating interconnections among various meteorological input factors. This study details the design and operation of graph modeling, including graph construction, node feature construction, message transfer, and readout. An entire model is established consisting of spectral graph convolution, multiple graphical edges and a hierarchical output manner. The testing results suggest that the proposed multi-graph model outperforms other benchmark models in terms of accuracy under day-ahead forecasting cases. Besides, the single-graph model achieves a reduced cost of training time comparing to deep-learning benchmark models.