Reconstructing eruptions at a data limited volcano: a case study at Gede (West Java)

Understanding past eruption dynamics at a volcano is crucial for forecasting the range of possible future eruptions and their associated hazards and risk. In this work we use numerical models to recreate the footprints of pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) and tephra fall from three eruptions at Ge...

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Main Authors: Tennant, Eleanor, Jenkins, Susanna F., Winson, Annie, Widiwijayanti, Christina, Gunawan, Hendra, Haerani, Nia, Kartadinata, Nugraha, Banggur, Wilfridus, Triastuti, Hetty
Other Authors: Asian School of the Environment
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: 2022
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Online Access:https://hdl.handle.net/10356/160230
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Institution: Nanyang Technological University
Language: English
id sg-ntu-dr.10356-160230
record_format dspace
institution Nanyang Technological University
building NTU Library
continent Asia
country Singapore
Singapore
content_provider NTU Library
collection DR-NTU
language English
topic Science::Geology::Volcanoes and earthquakes
Pyroclastic Density Currents
Gede Volcano
spellingShingle Science::Geology::Volcanoes and earthquakes
Pyroclastic Density Currents
Gede Volcano
Tennant, Eleanor
Jenkins, Susanna F.
Winson, Annie
Widiwijayanti, Christina
Gunawan, Hendra
Haerani, Nia
Kartadinata, Nugraha
Banggur, Wilfridus
Triastuti, Hetty
Reconstructing eruptions at a data limited volcano: a case study at Gede (West Java)
description Understanding past eruption dynamics at a volcano is crucial for forecasting the range of possible future eruptions and their associated hazards and risk. In this work we use numerical models to recreate the footprints of pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) and tephra fall from three eruptions at Gede volcano, Indonesia, with the aim of gaining further insight into these past eruptions and identifying suitable eruption source parameters for future hazard and risk assessment. Gede has the largest number of people living within 100 km of any volcano worldwide, and has exhibited recent unrest activity, yet little is known about its eruptive history. For PDCs, we used Titan2D to recreate geological deposits dated at 1.2 and c. 1 kyrs BP. An objective and quantitative multi-criteria method was developed to evaluate the fit of 342 model simulations with field observations. In recreating the field deposits we were able to identify the best fitting values to reconstruct these eruptions. We found that the 1.2 kyrs BP geological deposits could be reproduced with Titan2D using either a dome-collapse or a column-collapse as the triggering mechanism, although a relatively low basal friction angle of 6° would suggest that the PDCs were highly mobile. For the 1 kyrs BP PDC, a column-collapse mechanism and a higher basal friction angle were required to fit the geological deposits. In agreement with previous studies, we found that Titan2D simulations were most sensitive to the basal friction angle parameter. We used Tephra2 to recreate historic observations of tephra dispersed to Jakarta and Gunung Patuha during the last known magmatic eruption of Gede in 1948. In the absence of observable field deposits, or detailed information from the published literature, we stochastically sampled eruption source parameters from wide ranges informed by analogous volcanic systems, allowing us to constrain the eruption dynamics capable of dispersing tephra to the most populous city in Indonesia, Jakarta. Our modelling suggests that the deposition of tephra fall in Jakarta during the November 1948 eruption was a very low probability event, with a < 1% chance of occurrence. Through this work, we show how the reconstruction of past eruptions with numerical models can improve our understanding of past eruption dynamics, when faced with epistemic uncertainty. At Gede volcano, this provides a crucial step towards the reduction of risk to nearby populations through volcanic hazard assessment.
author2 Asian School of the Environment
author_facet Asian School of the Environment
Tennant, Eleanor
Jenkins, Susanna F.
Winson, Annie
Widiwijayanti, Christina
Gunawan, Hendra
Haerani, Nia
Kartadinata, Nugraha
Banggur, Wilfridus
Triastuti, Hetty
format Article
author Tennant, Eleanor
Jenkins, Susanna F.
Winson, Annie
Widiwijayanti, Christina
Gunawan, Hendra
Haerani, Nia
Kartadinata, Nugraha
Banggur, Wilfridus
Triastuti, Hetty
author_sort Tennant, Eleanor
title Reconstructing eruptions at a data limited volcano: a case study at Gede (West Java)
title_short Reconstructing eruptions at a data limited volcano: a case study at Gede (West Java)
title_full Reconstructing eruptions at a data limited volcano: a case study at Gede (West Java)
title_fullStr Reconstructing eruptions at a data limited volcano: a case study at Gede (West Java)
title_full_unstemmed Reconstructing eruptions at a data limited volcano: a case study at Gede (West Java)
title_sort reconstructing eruptions at a data limited volcano: a case study at gede (west java)
publishDate 2022
url https://hdl.handle.net/10356/160230
_version_ 1739837364305395712
spelling sg-ntu-dr.10356-1602302022-07-23T20:11:05Z Reconstructing eruptions at a data limited volcano: a case study at Gede (West Java) Tennant, Eleanor Jenkins, Susanna F. Winson, Annie Widiwijayanti, Christina Gunawan, Hendra Haerani, Nia Kartadinata, Nugraha Banggur, Wilfridus Triastuti, Hetty Asian School of the Environment Earth Observatory of Singapore Science::Geology::Volcanoes and earthquakes Pyroclastic Density Currents Gede Volcano Understanding past eruption dynamics at a volcano is crucial for forecasting the range of possible future eruptions and their associated hazards and risk. In this work we use numerical models to recreate the footprints of pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) and tephra fall from three eruptions at Gede volcano, Indonesia, with the aim of gaining further insight into these past eruptions and identifying suitable eruption source parameters for future hazard and risk assessment. Gede has the largest number of people living within 100 km of any volcano worldwide, and has exhibited recent unrest activity, yet little is known about its eruptive history. For PDCs, we used Titan2D to recreate geological deposits dated at 1.2 and c. 1 kyrs BP. An objective and quantitative multi-criteria method was developed to evaluate the fit of 342 model simulations with field observations. In recreating the field deposits we were able to identify the best fitting values to reconstruct these eruptions. We found that the 1.2 kyrs BP geological deposits could be reproduced with Titan2D using either a dome-collapse or a column-collapse as the triggering mechanism, although a relatively low basal friction angle of 6° would suggest that the PDCs were highly mobile. For the 1 kyrs BP PDC, a column-collapse mechanism and a higher basal friction angle were required to fit the geological deposits. In agreement with previous studies, we found that Titan2D simulations were most sensitive to the basal friction angle parameter. We used Tephra2 to recreate historic observations of tephra dispersed to Jakarta and Gunung Patuha during the last known magmatic eruption of Gede in 1948. In the absence of observable field deposits, or detailed information from the published literature, we stochastically sampled eruption source parameters from wide ranges informed by analogous volcanic systems, allowing us to constrain the eruption dynamics capable of dispersing tephra to the most populous city in Indonesia, Jakarta. Our modelling suggests that the deposition of tephra fall in Jakarta during the November 1948 eruption was a very low probability event, with a < 1% chance of occurrence. Through this work, we show how the reconstruction of past eruptions with numerical models can improve our understanding of past eruption dynamics, when faced with epistemic uncertainty. At Gede volcano, this provides a crucial step towards the reduction of risk to nearby populations through volcanic hazard assessment. Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A*STAR) Ministry of Education (MOE) National Research Foundation (NRF) Published version This research was supported by the Earth Observatory of Singapore via its funding from the National Research Foundation Singapore and the Singapore Ministry of Education under the Research Centres of Ex- cellence initiative. Early parts of this work were also supported by Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A*STAR). This work com- prises EOS contribution number 348. 2022-07-18T01:45:26Z 2022-07-18T01:45:26Z 2021 Journal Article Tennant, E., Jenkins, S. F., Winson, A., Widiwijayanti, C., Gunawan, H., Haerani, N., Kartadinata, N., Banggur, W. & Triastuti, H. (2021). Reconstructing eruptions at a data limited volcano: a case study at Gede (West Java). Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 418, 107325-. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2021.107325 0377-0273 https://hdl.handle.net/10356/160230 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2021.107325 2-s2.0-85111008750 418 107325 en Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research © 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). application/pdf