A novel statistical framework for exploring the population dynamics and seasonality of mosquito populations
Understanding the temporal dynamics of mosquito populations underlying vector-borne disease transmission is key to optimizing control strategies. Many questions remain surrounding the drivers of these dynamics and how they vary between species-questions rarely answerable from individual entomologica...
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sg-ntu-dr.10356-1629552023-02-28T16:40:43Z A novel statistical framework for exploring the population dynamics and seasonality of mosquito populations Whittaker, Charles Winskill, Peter Sinka, Marianne Pironon, Samuel Massey, Claire Weiss, Daniel J. Nguyen, Michele Gething, Peter W. Kumar, Ashwani Ghani, Azra Bhatt, Samir Asian School of the Environment Science::Biological sciences::Ecology Anopheles Mosquitoes Malaria Ecology Understanding the temporal dynamics of mosquito populations underlying vector-borne disease transmission is key to optimizing control strategies. Many questions remain surrounding the drivers of these dynamics and how they vary between species-questions rarely answerable from individual entomological studies (that typically focus on a single location or species). We develop a novel statistical framework enabling identification and classification of time series with similar temporal properties, and use this framework to systematically explore variation in population dynamics and seasonality in anopheline mosquito time series catch data spanning seven species, 40 years and 117 locations across mainland India. Our analyses reveal pronounced variation in dynamics across locations and between species in the extent of seasonality and timing of seasonal peaks. However, we show that these diverse dynamics can be clustered into four 'dynamical archetypes', each characterized by distinct temporal properties and associated with a largely unique set of environmental factors. Our results highlight that a range of environmental factors including rainfall, temperature, proximity to static water bodies and patterns of land use (particularly urbanicity) shape the dynamics and seasonality of mosquito populations, and provide a generically applicable framework to better identify and understand patterns of seasonal variation in vectors relevant to public health. Published version S.B. and A.G. both acknowledge grant support from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. C.W. acknowledges funding from the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis (reference MR/R015600/1), jointly funded by the UK Medical Research Council (MRC) and the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO), under the MRC/FCDO Concordat agreement and is also part of the EDCTP2 programme supported by the European Union. 2022-11-14T00:39:53Z 2022-11-14T00:39:53Z 2022 Journal Article Whittaker, C., Winskill, P., Sinka, M., Pironon, S., Massey, C., Weiss, D. J., Nguyen, M., Gething, P. W., Kumar, A., Ghani, A. & Bhatt, S. (2022). A novel statistical framework for exploring the population dynamics and seasonality of mosquito populations. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 289(1972), 20220089-. https://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2022.0089 0962-8452 https://hdl.handle.net/10356/162955 10.1098/rspb.2022.0089 35414241 2-s2.0-85128157652 1972 289 20220089 en Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences © 2022 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited. application/pdf |
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Science::Biological sciences::Ecology Anopheles Mosquitoes Malaria Ecology Whittaker, Charles Winskill, Peter Sinka, Marianne Pironon, Samuel Massey, Claire Weiss, Daniel J. Nguyen, Michele Gething, Peter W. Kumar, Ashwani Ghani, Azra Bhatt, Samir A novel statistical framework for exploring the population dynamics and seasonality of mosquito populations |
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Understanding the temporal dynamics of mosquito populations underlying vector-borne disease transmission is key to optimizing control strategies. Many questions remain surrounding the drivers of these dynamics and how they vary between species-questions rarely answerable from individual entomological studies (that typically focus on a single location or species). We develop a novel statistical framework enabling identification and classification of time series with similar temporal properties, and use this framework to systematically explore variation in population dynamics and seasonality in anopheline mosquito time series catch data spanning seven species, 40 years and 117 locations across mainland India. Our analyses reveal pronounced variation in dynamics across locations and between species in the extent of seasonality and timing of seasonal peaks. However, we show that these diverse dynamics can be clustered into four 'dynamical archetypes', each characterized by distinct temporal properties and associated with a largely unique set of environmental factors. Our results highlight that a range of environmental factors including rainfall, temperature, proximity to static water bodies and patterns of land use (particularly urbanicity) shape the dynamics and seasonality of mosquito populations, and provide a generically applicable framework to better identify and understand patterns of seasonal variation in vectors relevant to public health. |
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Asian School of the Environment |
author_facet |
Asian School of the Environment Whittaker, Charles Winskill, Peter Sinka, Marianne Pironon, Samuel Massey, Claire Weiss, Daniel J. Nguyen, Michele Gething, Peter W. Kumar, Ashwani Ghani, Azra Bhatt, Samir |
format |
Article |
author |
Whittaker, Charles Winskill, Peter Sinka, Marianne Pironon, Samuel Massey, Claire Weiss, Daniel J. Nguyen, Michele Gething, Peter W. Kumar, Ashwani Ghani, Azra Bhatt, Samir |
author_sort |
Whittaker, Charles |
title |
A novel statistical framework for exploring the population dynamics and seasonality of mosquito populations |
title_short |
A novel statistical framework for exploring the population dynamics and seasonality of mosquito populations |
title_full |
A novel statistical framework for exploring the population dynamics and seasonality of mosquito populations |
title_fullStr |
A novel statistical framework for exploring the population dynamics and seasonality of mosquito populations |
title_full_unstemmed |
A novel statistical framework for exploring the population dynamics and seasonality of mosquito populations |
title_sort |
novel statistical framework for exploring the population dynamics and seasonality of mosquito populations |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/10356/162955 |
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1759855235114729472 |