Study of climate change impact on hydro-climatic extremes in the Hanjiang River basin, China, using CORDEX-EAS data

An integrated assessment modelling framework is introduced to comprehensively evaluate the climate change impact on hydro-climatic extremes over the Hanjiang River basin, China. The framework consists of climate model scenarios, bias correction method, hydrological model, and extreme climate and str...

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Main Authors: Dai, C., Qin, Xiaosheng, Zhang, X. L., Liu, B. J.
Other Authors: School of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: 2023
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Online Access:https://hdl.handle.net/10356/164867
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Institution: Nanyang Technological University
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spelling sg-ntu-dr.10356-1648672023-02-21T05:51:01Z Study of climate change impact on hydro-climatic extremes in the Hanjiang River basin, China, using CORDEX-EAS data Dai, C. Qin, Xiaosheng Zhang, X. L. Liu, B. J. School of Civil and Environmental Engineering Engineering::Civil engineering Hydro-Climatic Extremes Quantile Delta Mapping An integrated assessment modelling framework is introduced to comprehensively evaluate the climate change impact on hydro-climatic extremes over the Hanjiang River basin, China. The framework consists of climate model scenarios, bias correction method, hydrological model, and extreme climate and streamflow indices. The outputs from five CORDEX-EAS regional climate models (RCMs) under RCP 2.6 and 8.5 were firstly bias-corrected for two future windows, i.e. near future (2021-2050) and far future (2051-2080), and then used to drive a hydrological model to estimate the changes of extreme climate and streamflow, which were described by 19 standard hydro-climatic indices. The hydrological model was calibrated using a new software developed based on generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) algorithm under parallel computing environment. From the ensemble median of RCMs, it was found that the study basin is expected to be slightly wetter and significantly hotter in the future, with more intense and frequent precipitation and higher temperature extremes. Particularly, the extreme annual maximum 1-day streamflow index would have an overall increase across the basin, with the most significant increase in the south-western part of the basin. The extreme annual minimum 7-day streamflow index is projected to have a significant increase in the northern, south-western and south-eastern parts of the basin in the near future, while it would show a basin-wide decrease in the far future under RCP 8.5. Our findings helped gain an in-depth insight into the responses of hydro-climatic extremes to climate changes for a large-scale watershed and offer valuable guidance to decision makers who are responsible in designing adaptation strategies to mitigate the risks from extreme water-related disasters in the future. Published version This work was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (52009022). We gratefully acknowledge the CORDEX-East Asia Databank (https://esgf-data.dkrz.de/search/cordex-dkrz/) and China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System for providing the climate dataset. 2023-02-21T05:51:01Z 2023-02-21T05:51:01Z 2022 Journal Article Dai, C., Qin, X., Zhang, X. L. & Liu, B. J. (2022). Study of climate change impact on hydro-climatic extremes in the Hanjiang River basin, China, using CORDEX-EAS data. Weather and Climate Extremes, 38, 100509-. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2022.100509 2212-0947 https://hdl.handle.net/10356/164867 10.1016/j.wace.2022.100509 2-s2.0-85140259473 38 100509 en Weather and Climate Extremes © 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). application/pdf
institution Nanyang Technological University
building NTU Library
continent Asia
country Singapore
Singapore
content_provider NTU Library
collection DR-NTU
language English
topic Engineering::Civil engineering
Hydro-Climatic Extremes
Quantile Delta Mapping
spellingShingle Engineering::Civil engineering
Hydro-Climatic Extremes
Quantile Delta Mapping
Dai, C.
Qin, Xiaosheng
Zhang, X. L.
Liu, B. J.
Study of climate change impact on hydro-climatic extremes in the Hanjiang River basin, China, using CORDEX-EAS data
description An integrated assessment modelling framework is introduced to comprehensively evaluate the climate change impact on hydro-climatic extremes over the Hanjiang River basin, China. The framework consists of climate model scenarios, bias correction method, hydrological model, and extreme climate and streamflow indices. The outputs from five CORDEX-EAS regional climate models (RCMs) under RCP 2.6 and 8.5 were firstly bias-corrected for two future windows, i.e. near future (2021-2050) and far future (2051-2080), and then used to drive a hydrological model to estimate the changes of extreme climate and streamflow, which were described by 19 standard hydro-climatic indices. The hydrological model was calibrated using a new software developed based on generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) algorithm under parallel computing environment. From the ensemble median of RCMs, it was found that the study basin is expected to be slightly wetter and significantly hotter in the future, with more intense and frequent precipitation and higher temperature extremes. Particularly, the extreme annual maximum 1-day streamflow index would have an overall increase across the basin, with the most significant increase in the south-western part of the basin. The extreme annual minimum 7-day streamflow index is projected to have a significant increase in the northern, south-western and south-eastern parts of the basin in the near future, while it would show a basin-wide decrease in the far future under RCP 8.5. Our findings helped gain an in-depth insight into the responses of hydro-climatic extremes to climate changes for a large-scale watershed and offer valuable guidance to decision makers who are responsible in designing adaptation strategies to mitigate the risks from extreme water-related disasters in the future.
author2 School of Civil and Environmental Engineering
author_facet School of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Dai, C.
Qin, Xiaosheng
Zhang, X. L.
Liu, B. J.
format Article
author Dai, C.
Qin, Xiaosheng
Zhang, X. L.
Liu, B. J.
author_sort Dai, C.
title Study of climate change impact on hydro-climatic extremes in the Hanjiang River basin, China, using CORDEX-EAS data
title_short Study of climate change impact on hydro-climatic extremes in the Hanjiang River basin, China, using CORDEX-EAS data
title_full Study of climate change impact on hydro-climatic extremes in the Hanjiang River basin, China, using CORDEX-EAS data
title_fullStr Study of climate change impact on hydro-climatic extremes in the Hanjiang River basin, China, using CORDEX-EAS data
title_full_unstemmed Study of climate change impact on hydro-climatic extremes in the Hanjiang River basin, China, using CORDEX-EAS data
title_sort study of climate change impact on hydro-climatic extremes in the hanjiang river basin, china, using cordex-eas data
publishDate 2023
url https://hdl.handle.net/10356/164867
_version_ 1759058823748780032