Identifying hotspots: a global exposure analysis of population and critical infrastructure around volcanoes

• Main Author: Teng, Natalie Rui Xue
• Other Authors: Susanna Jenkins
• Format: Final Year Project
• Language: English
• Published: Nanyang Technological University 2023
• Subjects: Science::Geology::Volcanoes and earthquakes; Social sciences::Geography::Natural disasters
• Online Access: https://hdl.handle.net/10356/165735
• Institution: Nanyang Technological University

Global exposure to volcanic hazards is primarily assessed with population. To better understand volcanic risk, exposure of assets should be considered too. In this study, population and critical infrastructure within 100 km of Holocene volcanoes are quantified. Volcanoes with the highest overall exposure are identified as Volcano Exposure Hotspots. The results show that most of the population and critical infrastructure around volcanoes are concentrated at few volcanoes, with Laguna Caldera having the highest overall exposure within 100 km. There are regional variations in exposure at different distances from a volcano. Eastern Asia has the most volcanoes with high critical infrastructure exposure within 100 km, whilst most volcanoes with high population exposure are in South-eastern Asia. Volcano Exposure Hotspots are often located around cities, which are strategically important to a country or region. Every Volcano Exposure Hotspot is within 100 km of at least three cities. Many cities are exposed to volcanic hazards from multiple volcanoes, with exposure increasing with city growth. For Jakarta, the number of volcanoes within 100 km of the city boundary doubled between 1975 and 2015. To assess tephra fall exposure across the city over time, changes in the city’s shape and direction of expansion are compared with prevailing wind direction data. The analysis shows that volcanic hazard exposure is not uniform across a city. Identifying volcanoes with the highest exposure and the cities around them, as well as the most exposed parts of a city can highlight potential areas for detailed risk assessments and mitigation measures.