War and deterrence in the Taiwan Strait

• Main Author: Hart, Ford
• Other Authors: S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
• Format: Commentary
• Language: English
• Published: 2023
• Subjects: Social sciences::Political science; Country and Region Studies; International Political Economy
• Online Access: https://hdl.handle.net/10356/168795
• Institution: Nanyang Technological University

Thirty years ago, prospects for a sustained conflict in the Taiwan Strait were limited. Today, concerns about the outbreak of war there are not unreasonable. It seems unlikely the leadership in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has set a date to seize Taiwan, but peace in the Strait is more fragile than at any time since the 1950s. The possibility of intervention by the United States remains the chief deterrent to a PRC attack, but a growing number of countries in Asia and beyond are attempting to shape the cost-benefit analysis in Beijing on which peace and stability hinge.