Variation in excess all-cause mortality by age, sex, and province during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy
Although previous evidence suggests that the infection fatality rate from COVID-19 varies by age and sex, and that transmission intensity varies geographically within countries, no study has yet explored the age-sex-space distribution of excess mortality associated with the COVID pandemic. By applyi...
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sg-ntu-dr.10356-1712022023-10-23T15:30:47Z Variation in excess all-cause mortality by age, sex, and province during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy Henry, Nathaniel J. Elagali, Ahmed Nguyen, Michele Chipeta, Michael Give Moore, Catrin E. Asian School of the Environment Science::General COVID-19 Epidemiology Although previous evidence suggests that the infection fatality rate from COVID-19 varies by age and sex, and that transmission intensity varies geographically within countries, no study has yet explored the age-sex-space distribution of excess mortality associated with the COVID pandemic. By applying the principles of small-area estimation to existing model formulations for excess mortality, this study develops a novel method for assessing excess mortality across small populations and assesses the pattern of COVID excess mortality by province, year, week, age group, and sex in Italy from March through May 2020. We estimate that 53,200 excess deaths occurred across Italy during this time period, compared to just 35,500 deaths where COVID-19 was registered as the underlying cause of death. Out of the total excess mortality burden, 97% of excess deaths occurred among adults over age 60, and 68% of excess deaths were concentrated among adults over age 80. The burden of excess mortality was unevenly distributed across the country, with just three of Italy's 107 provinces accounting for 32% of all excess mortality. This method for estimating excess mortality can be adapted to other countries where COVID-19 diagnostic capacity is still insufficient, and could be incorporated into public health rapid response systems. Published version A.E. would like to thank the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation for funding his research (OPP1152978). C.E.M. is funded by the United Kingdom’s Department of Health and Social Care, the Fleming Fund, the Wellcome Trust (Grant numbers 209142/Z/17/Z and 221579/Z/20/Z), and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (Grant number OPP1176062). The computational aspects of this research were supported by the Wellcome Trust Core Award Grant Number 203141/Z/16/Z and the NIHR Oxford BRC. 2023-10-20T01:29:15Z 2023-10-20T01:29:15Z 2022 Journal Article Henry, N. J., Elagali, A., Nguyen, M., Chipeta, M. G. & Moore, C. E. (2022). Variation in excess all-cause mortality by age, sex, and province during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy. Scientific Reports, 12(1), 1077-. https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-04993-7 2045-2322 https://hdl.handle.net/10356/171202 10.1038/s41598-022-04993-7 35058508 2-s2.0-85123260604 1 12 1077 en Scientific Reports © 2022 The Author(s). This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit gttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. application/pdf |
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Science::General COVID-19 Epidemiology Henry, Nathaniel J. Elagali, Ahmed Nguyen, Michele Chipeta, Michael Give Moore, Catrin E. Variation in excess all-cause mortality by age, sex, and province during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy |
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Although previous evidence suggests that the infection fatality rate from COVID-19 varies by age and sex, and that transmission intensity varies geographically within countries, no study has yet explored the age-sex-space distribution of excess mortality associated with the COVID pandemic. By applying the principles of small-area estimation to existing model formulations for excess mortality, this study develops a novel method for assessing excess mortality across small populations and assesses the pattern of COVID excess mortality by province, year, week, age group, and sex in Italy from March through May 2020. We estimate that 53,200 excess deaths occurred across Italy during this time period, compared to just 35,500 deaths where COVID-19 was registered as the underlying cause of death. Out of the total excess mortality burden, 97% of excess deaths occurred among adults over age 60, and 68% of excess deaths were concentrated among adults over age 80. The burden of excess mortality was unevenly distributed across the country, with just three of Italy's 107 provinces accounting for 32% of all excess mortality. This method for estimating excess mortality can be adapted to other countries where COVID-19 diagnostic capacity is still insufficient, and could be incorporated into public health rapid response systems. |
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Asian School of the Environment |
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Asian School of the Environment Henry, Nathaniel J. Elagali, Ahmed Nguyen, Michele Chipeta, Michael Give Moore, Catrin E. |
format |
Article |
author |
Henry, Nathaniel J. Elagali, Ahmed Nguyen, Michele Chipeta, Michael Give Moore, Catrin E. |
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Henry, Nathaniel J. |
title |
Variation in excess all-cause mortality by age, sex, and province during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy |
title_short |
Variation in excess all-cause mortality by age, sex, and province during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy |
title_full |
Variation in excess all-cause mortality by age, sex, and province during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy |
title_fullStr |
Variation in excess all-cause mortality by age, sex, and province during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy |
title_full_unstemmed |
Variation in excess all-cause mortality by age, sex, and province during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy |
title_sort |
variation in excess all-cause mortality by age, sex, and province during the first wave of the covid-19 pandemic in italy |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/10356/171202 |
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1781793877956493312 |