Fallout from an intelligence failure in Gaza

• Main Author: Kwa, Chong Guan
• Other Authors: S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
• Format: Commentary
• Language: English
• Published: 2023
• Subjects: Social sciences::Political science; Conflict and Stability; International Politics and Security
• Online Access: https://hdl.handle.net/10356/171688
• Institution: Nanyang Technological University

It is inevitable that a Commission of Inquiry will be set up to determine why Israel’s intelligence community failed to provide early warning of Hamas’ breaching of Israel’s defence wall on Saturday 7 October. From past experiences, the search for answers will look into three areas of intelligence failures: [1] the quantity and quality of information on Hamas preparation for an attack on Israel; [2] the implicit assumptions underlying the assessments of information gathered; and [3] Israeli policy maker’s reception of intelligence assessments about Hamas’ intentions and capabilities for an attack on Israel. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his political colleagues must be aware that their policy decisions and actions in the leadup to Hamas’ attack and thereafter will be closely scrutinised by any Commission of Inquiry. They will have to start crafting narratives defending their actions which can be presented to a Commission of Inquiry.