Assessing urban flooding risk in response to climate change and urbanization based on shared socio-economic pathways

Global climate change and rapid urbanization, mainly driven by anthropogenic activities, lead to urban flood vulnerability and uncertainty in sustainable stormwater management. This study projected the temporal and spatial variation in urban flood susceptibility during the period 2020-2050 on the ba...

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Main Authors: Wang, Mo, Fu, Xiaoping, Zhang, Dongqing, Chen, Furong, Liu, Ming, Zhou, Shiqi, Su, Jin, Tan, Soon Keat
Other Authors: School of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: 2023
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Online Access:https://hdl.handle.net/10356/172068
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Institution: Nanyang Technological University
Language: English
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spelling sg-ntu-dr.10356-1720682023-11-21T04:16:09Z Assessing urban flooding risk in response to climate change and urbanization based on shared socio-economic pathways Wang, Mo Fu, Xiaoping Zhang, Dongqing Chen, Furong Liu, Ming Zhou, Shiqi Su, Jin Tan, Soon Keat School of Civil and Environmental Engineering Engineering::Civil engineering Urban Flood Susceptibility Climate Change Global climate change and rapid urbanization, mainly driven by anthropogenic activities, lead to urban flood vulnerability and uncertainty in sustainable stormwater management. This study projected the temporal and spatial variation in urban flood susceptibility during the period 2020-2050 on the basis of shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). A case study in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) was conducted for verifying the feasibility and applicability of this approach. GBA is predicted to encounter the increase in extreme precipitation with high intensity and frequency, along with rapid expansion of constructed areas, resulting in exacerbating of urban flood susceptibility. The areas with medium and high flood susceptibility will be expected to increase continuously from 2020 to 2050, by 9.5 %, 12.0 %, and 14.4 % under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. In terms of the assessment of spatial-temporal flooding pattern, the areas with high flood susceptibility are overlapped with that in the populated urban center in GBA, surrounding the existing risk areas, which is consistent with the tendency of construction land expansion. The approach in the present study will provide comprehensive insights into the reliable and accurate assessment of urban flooding susceptibility in response to climate change and urbanization. This work was supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province, China [grant number 2023A1515030158] and the Science and Technology Program of Guangzhou, China [grant number 202201010431]. 2023-11-21T04:16:09Z 2023-11-21T04:16:09Z 2023 Journal Article Wang, M., Fu, X., Zhang, D., Chen, F., Liu, M., Zhou, S., Su, J. & Tan, S. K. (2023). Assessing urban flooding risk in response to climate change and urbanization based on shared socio-economic pathways. Science of the Total Environment, 880, 163470-. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.163470 0048-9697 https://hdl.handle.net/10356/172068 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.163470 37076008 2-s2.0-85152596573 880 163470 en Science of the Total Environment © 2023 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
institution Nanyang Technological University
building NTU Library
continent Asia
country Singapore
Singapore
content_provider NTU Library
collection DR-NTU
language English
topic Engineering::Civil engineering
Urban Flood Susceptibility
Climate Change
spellingShingle Engineering::Civil engineering
Urban Flood Susceptibility
Climate Change
Wang, Mo
Fu, Xiaoping
Zhang, Dongqing
Chen, Furong
Liu, Ming
Zhou, Shiqi
Su, Jin
Tan, Soon Keat
Assessing urban flooding risk in response to climate change and urbanization based on shared socio-economic pathways
description Global climate change and rapid urbanization, mainly driven by anthropogenic activities, lead to urban flood vulnerability and uncertainty in sustainable stormwater management. This study projected the temporal and spatial variation in urban flood susceptibility during the period 2020-2050 on the basis of shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). A case study in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) was conducted for verifying the feasibility and applicability of this approach. GBA is predicted to encounter the increase in extreme precipitation with high intensity and frequency, along with rapid expansion of constructed areas, resulting in exacerbating of urban flood susceptibility. The areas with medium and high flood susceptibility will be expected to increase continuously from 2020 to 2050, by 9.5 %, 12.0 %, and 14.4 % under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. In terms of the assessment of spatial-temporal flooding pattern, the areas with high flood susceptibility are overlapped with that in the populated urban center in GBA, surrounding the existing risk areas, which is consistent with the tendency of construction land expansion. The approach in the present study will provide comprehensive insights into the reliable and accurate assessment of urban flooding susceptibility in response to climate change and urbanization.
author2 School of Civil and Environmental Engineering
author_facet School of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Wang, Mo
Fu, Xiaoping
Zhang, Dongqing
Chen, Furong
Liu, Ming
Zhou, Shiqi
Su, Jin
Tan, Soon Keat
format Article
author Wang, Mo
Fu, Xiaoping
Zhang, Dongqing
Chen, Furong
Liu, Ming
Zhou, Shiqi
Su, Jin
Tan, Soon Keat
author_sort Wang, Mo
title Assessing urban flooding risk in response to climate change and urbanization based on shared socio-economic pathways
title_short Assessing urban flooding risk in response to climate change and urbanization based on shared socio-economic pathways
title_full Assessing urban flooding risk in response to climate change and urbanization based on shared socio-economic pathways
title_fullStr Assessing urban flooding risk in response to climate change and urbanization based on shared socio-economic pathways
title_full_unstemmed Assessing urban flooding risk in response to climate change and urbanization based on shared socio-economic pathways
title_sort assessing urban flooding risk in response to climate change and urbanization based on shared socio-economic pathways
publishDate 2023
url https://hdl.handle.net/10356/172068
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