The war puzzle revisited: overconfidence and the Russia-Ukraine war

• Main Author: Johnson, Dominic D. P.
• Other Authors: S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
• Format: Commentary
• Language: English
• Published: 2024
• Subjects: Social sciences::Political science; Country and Region Studies; International Politics and Security
• Online Access: https://hdl.handle.net/10356/173072
• Institution: Nanyang Technological University

A major paradox in international relations is the widespread fear and anxiety that underlies the security dilemma in times of peace, and the prevalence of overconfidence on the eve of war. This phenomenon is no better illustrated than in Russia’s fear for its security and its ill-fated invasion of Ukraine in 2022. While Russia and many outside observers expected a quick victory, two years on their early gains have been reversed and they have become bogged down in a long and costly war, fighting a hardened opponent with powerful allies. However, while this is a new war, it is an old story, on which human nature sheds some light.