Tail mean-variance portfolio selection with estimation risk
Tail Mean-Variance (TMV) has emerged from the actuarial community as a criterion for risk management and portfolio selection, with a focus on extreme losses. The existing literature on portfolio optimization under the TMV criterion relies on the plug-in approach that substitutes the unknown mean vec...
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| المؤلفون الرئيسيون: | , , |
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| مؤلفون آخرون: | |
| التنسيق: | مقال |
| اللغة: | English |
| منشور في: |
2024
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| الموضوعات: | |
| الوصول للمادة أونلاين: | https://hdl.handle.net/10356/174709 |
| الوسوم: |
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| المؤسسة: | Nanyang Technological University |
| اللغة: | English |
| الملخص: | Tail Mean-Variance (TMV) has emerged from the actuarial community as a criterion for risk management and portfolio selection, with a focus on extreme losses. The existing literature on portfolio optimization under the TMV criterion relies on the plug-in approach that substitutes the unknown mean vector and covariance matrix of asset returns in the optimal portfolio weights with their sample counterparts. However, the plug-in method inevitably introduces estimation risk and usually leads to poor out-of-sample portfolio performance. To address this issue, we propose a combination of the plug-in and 1/N rules and optimize its expected out-of-sample performance. Our study is based on the Mean-Variance-Standard-deviation (MVS) performance measure, which encompasses the TMV, classical Mean-Variance, and Mean-Standard-Deviation (MStD) as special cases. The MStD criterion is particularly relevant to mean-risk portfolio selection when risk is measured by quantile-based risk measures. Our proposed combined portfolio consistently outperforms both the plug-in MVS and 1/N portfolios in simulated and real-world datasets. |
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